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  • Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 8, 2021

    AUD/USD
    Against the background of yesterday's large-scale strengthening of the dollar (only oil did not follow the dollar's growth), the Australian currency lost 34 points; it returned to the target level of 0.7770, the Marlin oscillator returned to its own downward channel, leaving the exit from it on the 6th as false, which we assumed in yesterday's review. Now, we are waiting for the signal line of the oscillator to exit the channel down, go into the zone of negative values, and further advance the price to the targets of 0.7641, 0.7465.

    The price on the four-hour scale is still above the balance and MACD indicator lines, but Marlin is already in the territory of a declining trend, dragging the market sentiment to a further decline. In order to consolidate this trend, the price will need to go under the MACD line, below 0.7220. This is the main scenario.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

    Comment


    • Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 11, 2021

      EUR/USD
      The US employment report from last Friday had mixed results; the non-agricultural sector lost 140,000 jobs against expectations of growth by 60,000, but at the same time the November figure was revised up from 245,000 to 336,000, the share of the economically active population remained at 61.5%, while the unemployment rate was at 6.7%. But the structure of labor data acquired a qualitative positive shift: the broad unemployment index fell from 12.0% to 11.7%, while 38,000 jobs were added in the manufacturing industry against the forecast of 20,000. But even if the data was not enough, it conveniently fits into the idea of the new administration of President Biden to adopt a plan for new budget expenditures worth several trillion dollars, and he will elaborate on the topic this week. In anticipation of this news, as well as at the beginning of the next cycle of attracting new debts by the US Treasury, the dollar was actively being purchased both yesterday and this morning. This week it is expected to raise 60 billion of net debt through government bonds.

      The daily chart shows that the euro is initially aiming for 1.2050 - the MACD indicator line. If the price moves below the line, the second target will be 1.1885. But first, the price must overcome the 1.2152/77 range that was created by the extremes on December 23 and 4. There may be a slight correction from it. The Marlin Oscillator is in the downward trend zone, where it entered very decisively.

      The four-hour chart shows that the price began to accelerate to the downside, from the area where the balance and MACD indicator lines coincide. The short-term trend is decreasing.

      Analysis are provided by InstaForex

      Comment


      • Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 12, 2021

        EUR/USD
        The euro fell by almost 70 points on Monday, stopping in the designated range of 1.2152/77. Consolidation is observed in the range this morning. With the exit from the consolidation to the downside, more precisely, with the price moving below yesterday's low of 1.2132, we expect the quote to fall towards the target along the MACD line at 1.2045.

        The four-hour chart shows that the price is consolidating in a narrow range of 1.2152/77, but the corrective reversal of the Marlin oscillator warns of a possible exit from this range, just slightly above it. The signal to sustain the fall will be when the price crosses the area under yesterday's low of 1.2132.

        Analysis are provided by InstaForex

        Comment


        • Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 13, 2021

          AUD/USD
          On Tuesday, the growth of the Australian dollar covered the fall on Monday. Perhaps this is the intention of the price to set a new high with the formation of another divergence with the oscillator. However, a price reversal into a new branch of decline is also possible; for this purpose, there should be a consolidation under 0.7770, which will take another day, since the current candle should close below this level. Today, the situation is not trading.

          The price on the four-hour chart is fixed above the balance and MACD indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone. There are signs of continued growth, but false signals often appear on trend breaks. A more reliable signal will look like fixing the price under the MACD line (0.7735 / 40), after which the target level of 0.7641 can be expected to work out.

          Analysis are provided by InstaForex

          Comment


          • Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 14, 2021

            EUR/USD
            Yesterday, the euro dropped 48 points and returned to the consolidation range of 1.2132/77. Leaving the range for growth can be mistaken for a false movement when the price falls below the lower border of the range, and this will boost traders' confidence for an attack not only on the nearest target of 1.2050 along the MACD line on the daily chart, but also below, to the target level of 1.1920 ( high on November 9 and September 10).

            The four-hour chart shows that the Marlin oscillator operates on the zero neutral line, which to some extent weakens its leading role as a leading indicator. But on the other hand, if the price falls, the oscillator will have enough margin for a downward movement. We are waiting for the development of the situation. Before the price falls below 1.2132, the price may once again try to test the MACD line at 1.2225.

            Analysis are provided by InstaForex

            Comment


            • Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 15, 2021

              EUR/USD
              On Thursday, the euro traded in the consolidation range of 1.2132/77 with a short exit from it to the downside, with an attempt to pull down the price below the balance line on a daily timescale. If the price settled below this line, it would mean a shift in market sentiment towards short positions in the medium term.

              The Marlin Oscillator has been in a downward trend zone for a week now, a sign that the euro will strengthen its attempts to break down the remaining rising technical signs. The price continues to develop above the MACD indicator line on the daily chart. Getting the pair to settle below it, under 1.2050, will strengthen the market's downward sentiment and send the price towards the 1.1920 target (November 9 high).

              The price is consolidating in the 1.2132/77 range on the four-hour chart, but a more pronounced consolidation is observed on the Marlin oscillator. The main direction of the oscillator signal line's exit from the range is to the downside, but taking into account that it could form on the border of the positive area following the previous growth (technical figure "flag"), there is still a possibility that the price could rise to the MACD line (1.2220) or even to the target level of 1.2273 - the high on December 17. In order to confirm the price's intention to fall, the price would have to settle below the lower border of the 1.2132 range.

              Analysis are provided by InstaForex

              Comment



              • USDCAD is facing bearish pressure, potential for further downside!



                Price is facing bearish pressure from our first resistance in line with our horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci extension where we could see a drop below this to our first support target.


                Trading Recommendation Entry:

                1.2790

                Reason for Entry:

                horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci extension

                Take Profit: 1.2745

                23.6% fibonacci retracement

                Stop Loss: 1.2832

                Reason for Stop Loss:

                horizontal swing high resistance

                *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

                Comment


                • Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 19, 2021

                  AUD / USD
                  Yesterday, the Australian dollar fell slightly under the strengthening of the US currency. Today, the major currency pairs are undergoing a correction as the US dollar is weakening and counter dollar currencies are strengthening. The growth of the "Australian" today has already blocked yesterday's decline in the Asian session. After the correction is completed with the price overcoming the target level of 0.7641, it will most likely increase the fall to the target of 0.7465, which is approaching the Kruzenshtern line. The Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone and this circumstance will restrain the growth of the currency.

                  Based on the four-hour scale, the Marlin oscillator makes its way into the growth zone, strengthening the previously formed convergence. The end of the corrective growth is expected on the Kruzenshtern line in the area of 0.7743. Growth is also possible above the target level of 0.7770. The nature of the development of the oscillator indicates the completion of the correction tomorrow.

                  Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                  Comment


                  • Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on January 20, 2021

                    USD/JPY
                    Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair rose by 20 points without working out the trend line of the price channel of the higher timeframe (104.20). This creates a prerequisite for a repeated attack of the price on this resistance in the near future. The price is higher than the balance indicator line. If the quote moves below the signal level 103.57, which coincides with the support of the Kruzenshtern Indicator line (blue), it will create a condition for the implementation of an alternative scenario where there will be a decline to the level of 103.00.

                    On the four-hour scale chart, the price breaks under the Kruzenshtern line. The Marlin Oscillator turns down from the border with the growth territory. A price decline to at least 103.57 is possible, after which we also expect a rapid increase to 104.20.

                    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                    Comment


                    • Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on January 21, 2021

                      AUD/USD
                      Yesterday and this morning, the Australian Dollar rose by almost 80 points. Today, positive data was released on employment. Unemployment in Australia fell from 6.8% to 6.6%, while the share of the economically active population increased from 66.1% to 66.2%. Fixing the price above 0.7770 may lead the dollar to the target level of 0.7905. The Marlin Oscillator, which has moved into the growth zone, pushes the price to this level.

                      On the four-hour scale chart, the price is already fixed above the Kruzenshtern Indicator Line. The price remains to gain a foothold above the reached level of 0.7770. If the price does not succeed and the consolidation occurs under the Kruzenshtern line below the level of 0.7744, the scenario for growth will be cancelled. The price will again pay attention to the target level of 0.7641.

                      Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                      Comment


                      • Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. January 22. The euro currency shows its readiness to return to 2.5-year highs.

                        4-hour timeframe

                        Technical details:
                        Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.
                        Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.
                        Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.
                        CCI: 105.3571

                        The EUR/USD currency pair on Thursday, January 21, waited for half a day for the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank. And when they were announced, it turned out that there was not much to react to. But more on that below. From a technical point of view, the euro/dollar pair has consolidated above the moving average line, so the trend on the 4-hour timeframe has changed to an upward trend. So what can we expect now? How is the pound/dollar pair moving? According to the technique, everything now looks like this: there was a downward correction of almost 300 points within the upward trend. Therefore, now is the time to resume the upward trend. Of course, this is still only a hypothesis, but given the continuing weak demand for the US currency and the complete disregard for the fundamental background, this is the conclusion that suggests itself.

                        Let's go back to the ECB meeting and its results. Here, all the results can be described in one sentence: the regulator left the monetary policy parameters unchanged. None of the traders expected that the ECB at the first meeting in 2021 will change the rate or begin to further increase the quantitative easing program or its "emergency counterpart" - the PEPP program. Thus, the interest rate on loans remained at 0%, on deposits - at -0.5%, and the volume of the PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) – at 1.85 trillion euros. Perhaps there is nothing more to say here. The fact that traders reacted to this news with purchases of the euro currency has no connection at all with what is happening. Simply put, this was not the reaction of traders to the ECB meeting. Let's get this straight: 90% of the time, almost any instrument moves either up or down. That is, the upward movement on January 21 may be a simple coincidence. The markets were going to buy the euro currency without the ECB meeting, that's all. There was nothing to react to. The ECB has not made any changes to monetary policy.

                        Therefore, you can forget about the meeting and focus on the problems of the Eurozone. Because there are now much more of them than, for example, the American economy. The problem of high public debt in the United States is already something of a byword. This problem has been discussed by all experts, economists, and analysts for a couple of decades. However, along with this "unsolvable" problem, the American economy continues to grow and remains in first place in the world. Yes, some studies suggest that in 10 years or so, the Chinese economy may come out on top in the world in terms of size. However, this is still written with a pitchfork on the water. No one knows what will happen in 10 years. Could anyone have predicted the "coronavirus"? Yes, new viruses and diseases appear from time to time on the planet Earth, but who could have predicted that the whole world would be mired in a pandemic for a whole year? And it's not over yet. Thus, we would recommend paying attention to indicators that reflect the state of the economy here and now. The eurozone also has enough debt. They are not so huge, but they are. For example, only the eurozone recovery fund for 750 billion euros will be formed from borrowed funds, which will be returned for several decades. These are the same debts.

                        But we look at the GDP forecasts for the fourth quarter and see: -2.2% is forecasted in the Eurozone; +4.2% - +4.4% is forecasted in the United States. Thus, despite all the problems, despite the first place in the world in the number of cases of coronavirus, despite the first place in the world in the number of deaths from COVID, despite the lack of a package of assistance to the economy, the unemployed and businesses, it is the American economy that continues to recover after the second quarter of 2020, while the European economy will again shrink. Naturally, this is due to the second "lockdown", which was in the EU, but not in the United States. However, what difference does it make between the economies for such an imbalance in the fourth quarter? The fact remains.

                        But despite this, the European currency as a whole continues to grow. It is still very difficult to find any reasons for the strengthening of the euro and the fall of the US dollar. We have already talked about the economy. There are no serious geopolitical problems now either in the EU or in the United States. Moreover, it is the European Union that has recently lost part of its "own" territory (Great Britain). There is one less country in the European Union. And not just for one country, but for a country with an economy in the TOP 10 in the world. However, before and after Brexit, the European currency continued to grow. Political problems, crisis? Yes, it was in the States for almost all of 2020. In Europe, there were other problems, but they were successfully resolved. But the European currency can not grow for about 10 months just because of the political crisis in the United States.

                        Therefore, based on all of the above, we can conclude that the factors that push the euro up and the dollar down do not lie on the surface. First, it may be a speculative factor, which we have already discussed. First, the upward trend began, and it began quite rightly (four types of crises in the US in 2020, which even Joe Biden recently announced). And in recent months, traders buy the euro and get rid of the dollar. The second hypothetical reason may lie in the plane of large players. We have repeatedly said that small traders do not make any weather in the market. Markets are driven by big players. This, of course, is not one or two central banks. There are thousands of them, but still not millions. And their volumes are different. Thus, it is quite possible that in the highest circles they have completely different information that is not available to ordinary traders. Based on this information, transactions for the sale of the dollar can be made. The third possible reason is purely technical. If you look at the monthly timeframe, it becomes clear that the euro currency has been falling in price for 12 years. For a global trend, a period of 10-12 years is the ideal time to complete. Thus, now may be the time for a long-term upward trend in the euro (from 2000 to 2008, the euro rose in price), or it is time for a technical correction to the area of the level of 1.4000. Of course, confirmation of these assumptions will be extremely difficult to obtain. Therefore, as before, we recommend following the trend, and not trying to guess the reversal, especially long-term. It is better to settle for less profit than to lose everything.

                        The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of January 22 is 70 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.2083 and 1.2223. A downward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator may signal a new round of downward correction.

                        Nearest support levels:
                        S1 – 1.2085
                        S2 – 1.1963
                        S3 – 1.1841
                        Nearest resistance levels:
                        R1 – 1.2207
                        R2 – 1.2329
                        R3 – 1.2451

                        Trading Recommendations:
                        The EUR/USD pair has consolidated above the moving average. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in long positions with targets of 1,2207 and 1,2223 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair is fixed back below the moving average with a target of 1.2085.

                        Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                        Comment


                        • Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 25, 2021

                          EUR/USD
                          As we expected in last Friday's review, the euro settled in the 1.2132/77 range. The trading volumes were similar to those of the previous two days, that is, purchases were indeed closed, but not as intensely as we expected. Today this process may continue, which can be helped by the German IFO indices for January; the forecast for the business climate assumes a decrease in the index from 92.1 to 91.8, the index of current expectations may decrease from 91.3 to 90.6.

                          The daily chart shows the price met the resistance of the balance indicator line and the upper border of the consolidation range of 1.2132/77. The Marlin oscillator is turning to the downside. We are waiting for the price to leave the area under the lower border of the consolidation range and a subsequent attack on the MACD line in the 1.2070 area, getting the price to settle below it opens the 1.1915 target.

                          The four-hour chart shows that the 1.2132 level coincides with the MACD indicator line, respectively, the level, like the consolidation range itself, gains strategic importance in the short-term current situation.

                          Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                          Comment


                          • Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on January 26, 2021

                            GBP/USD
                            Yesterday, the British pound tested support at 1.3648. So far it has been unsuccessful and there are several technical reasons for this; the signal line of the Marlin oscillator met the lower line of its own wedge on the daily chart; on the four-hour chart, the MACD line is located at this price level.

                            But Marlin has penetrated the negative area in the four-hour chart, this is a sign that the price would overcome support at 1.3648, probably by today. The target for the decline is the 1.3480 level - the low on December 9 and September 1, 2020.

                            The four-hour chart shows that the 1.2132 level coincides with the MACD indicator line, respectively, the level, like the consolidation range itself, gains strategic importance in the short-term current situation.

                            Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                            Comment


                            • Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EURUSD for January 27, 2021

                              Technical outlook:
                              EURUSD dropped to 1.2108 lows yesterday before finding support again. It is quite possible that the European currency has managed to carve a higher low and bulls are now inclined to extend the counter trend rally towards 1.2250/70 in the near term. The single currency pair is seen to be trading at around 1.2163 levels at this point in writing and is expected to continue pushing higher towards 1.2250/70 levels before resuming lower again.

                              Immediate resistance remains fixed at 1.2350 mark, while interim support comes in around 1.2053 levels respectively. The recent boundary which is being worked upon is between 1.2350 and 1.2053 and the fibonacci 0.618 retracement is seen towards 1.2250 levels respectively (not shown here). High probability remains for a bearish reversal, if prices manage to reach through 1.2250/70 zone. Bears are expected to be back in control until prices stay below 1.2350 highs.

                              On the flip side, even if prices break above 1.2350 in the near term, upside remains limited and a sharp bearish reversal could be underway. The larger wave structure also remains constructive for bears since the entire rally between 1.0636 and 1.2350 seems to be complete. Probability remains high for a drop through 1.1250/1.1300 levels, which is fibonacci 0.618 retracement for the above rally.

                              Trading plan:
                              Remain short, add more @ 1.2250/70, stop @ 1.2500, target is open.
                              Good luck!

                              Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                              Comment


                              • Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on January 28, 2021

                                EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro's situation developed according to our main scenario without a false upward surge. And the euro was pushed to this scenario by a member of the European Central Bank's governing council, Klaas Knot, by announcing the possibility of lowering the rate to increase inflation. The business media did not believe Knot, because no one doubts the growth of inflation without the influence of the changed rates due to the continuing pumping of markets with unsecured liquidity. Most likely, the ECB is simply trying to hint about the high rate of the euro. One way or another, but the investors reacted unequivocally - they began to sell the euro. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke in an optimistic vein regarding the prospects for the economy. He said that the economy has proved to be very resilient to blackouts, it will grow in the second half of the year, and the asset buyback program will continue "as long as necessary" and investors will be warned in advance about the central bank's intention to begin its reduction. This time investors correctly understood Powell's words - if the economy is doing well, then the Fed will issue a "warning" in the foreseeable future. Fourth quarter US GDP, trade balance and new home sales are due today. All indicators are expected to grow.

                                The price stopped at the MACD indicator line on the daily chart. If the price moves below it, under yesterday's low (1.2058), the target opens at 1.1915 - the peak of four local highs: November 9, September 10, August 6, July 31.

                                The price settled below the MACD line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is declining. We are waiting for the price to overcome the signal level of 1.2058 and the succeeding fall of the EUR/USD pair.

                                Analysis are provided by InstaForex


                                Comment

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