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  • GBP/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!



    Trading RecommendationEntry: 1.31158 Reason for Entry: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

    Take Profit : 1.27253 Reason for Take Profit:50% fibonacci retracementStop Loss: 1.35194 Reason for Stop loss:

    Horizontal swing high resistance


    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Comment


    • EUR/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!



      Trading Recommendation Entry: 1.11104 Reason for Entry:

      Horizontal overlap resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension Take Profit : 1.10667

      Reason for Take Profit: horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Stop Loss: 1.11541

      Reason for Stop loss:Horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement


      *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

      Comment


      • Forecast for EUR/USD on January 6, 2019

        EUR/USD

        Last Friday, the euro made an attempt to push the technical level of 110.0% Fibonacci on the daily chart, but it failed on its first attempt. On Saturday, US President Trump threatened to attack 52 Iran's targets in the event of Iran's military response to a US missile strike, leading to the assassination of General Soleimani. Trump was indirectly supported by Britain, Germany and France, once again urging Tehran to comply with the nuclear deal. We doubt the development of the conflict before the hot phase of the war with Iran, but the current situation can help the dollar in getting out of consolidation (of course, in the direction of strengthening), stretching from July last year.

        On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator approached the lower boundary of its own channel, the exit from which down will strengthen the fall of the euro. The purpose of the movement is the embedded line of the global downward price channel in the region of 1.1045.

        *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

        Analysis are provided by InstaForex

        Comment


        • Ichimoku cloud indicator Daily analysis of EURUSD for January 7, 2020

          EURUSD remains in a bullish trend continuing to make higher highs and higher lows. Price so far has respected the key Cloud support area of 1.1040-1.1050. Thus we continue to see more upside potential over the coming days.

          Price has broken above the Kumo (cloud) and has so far successfully back tested support. Price bounced off the Cloud and this was another bullish signal. EURUSD is now trading above the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) while the kijun-sen is trending below tenkan-sen with a positive slope. With the tenkan-sen above the kijun-sen we have supporting evidence of a bullish trend. We continue to expect this next leg higher to move closer to 1.1280.

          *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

          Analysis are provided by InstaForex

          Comment


          • Australian network through franc

            Good evening, dear traders. Congratulations to all Orthodox Christians on Christmas! I wish you well and financial well-being!

            As you have probably already noticed, I often trade certain cross-courses using the grid method. And today, as an example of one of them, I will show how you can spread the correct network of limit purchases on the highly oversold AUD/CHF instrument.

            Please note that such counter-trend sets should be carried out only after fairly strong passes and an understanding of the average rollback for the pair. You can see some part of these numbers on the screen on the left with a 5-digit dimension.

            Now, if you use the lot increase coefficient, you can calculate it according to the trader's calculator.

            Good luck in trading and control the risks!

            *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

            Analysis are provided by InstaForex


            Comment


            • The collapse of the Boeing after another 737 crash

              Good evening, dear traders. I present to you the trading idea for Boeing's Stock CFD.

              So, yesterday, there was a terrible catastrophe of the Ukrainian Boeing 737 in Iran. Boeing fell shortly after takeoff and all 170 passengers died. Now, for the preliminary version: technical - engine fire. This is not the first crash with a Boeing in recent times. Thus, we recommended selling the shares that were mentioned back in December.

              Boeing has a very interesting level of $ 318 from the point of view of hunting for stops. In fact, this is a platform with the feet of buyers of this asset for the entire last year. 737 was discontinued in December, but accidents continued with it. Against this background, we recommend holding short positions in order to break through the level of 319 with a further pull to historical 292:

              Since the opening, the shares have lost $ 4. Therefore, we recommend developing the reduction to the above levels if you are not yet on sale.

              Good luck in trading and control the risks!

              *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

              Analysis are provided by InstaForex

              Comment


              • Forecast for GBP/USD on January 10, 2020

                GBP/USD
                The British pound lost 30 points on Thursday. The price consolidated below the MACD line on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is falling in the negative trend zone, but not due to the strong dynamics of the pound's decline, the balance indicator line (red) continues to hold the price, further slowing its decline. The continuation of such a tendency - a decrease in the British pound will lead to an increase in bullish sentiment, the market can take advantage of such confusion.

                Data on US employment will be published today, the forecast for new jobs in the non-agricultural sector for December is 162 thousand, this may be an incentive to further pull down the pound to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.2968. But even in this case, the pound's decline rate may not be enough to overcome the balance indicator line. If it also remains below the price by the opening of Monday, then the correction of the British pound is possible next week. The 1.2968 level is technically strong.

                On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated below the MACD line yesterday - one candle with the whole body was under this line, but at the moment the price is already above the MACD line. Such a false signal is also a sign of a short downward movement, if any (to our target 1.2968). The Marlin oscillator is moving after the price, it is not providing signals. Another price consolidation below the MACD line, as well as under the correction level of 23.6%, will open the nearest target at 1.2968. To move the price to lower targets (1.2820, 1.2730), which are marked on the daily scale, you need a rapid movement of the price down today.

                *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

                Analysis are provided by InstaForex


                Comment


                • Forecast for GBP/USD on January 13, 2020 Quotes of the British pound are held for two days on the indicator line of the balance of the daily scale in red. Overcoming it will allow the price to consistently take the three immediate goals at the Fibonacci levels: 1.2968, 1.2820, 1.2730. The Marlin oscillator is in the decline zone. On the four-hour chart, the price overcame the support of the MACD line, but did so with a gap. In this case, with a general declining trend and in the absence of warning reversal signals, the "window" serves as a harbinger of a further fall in prices, but it is not advisable for it to remain open for a long time. We are waiting for the closure of this gap and a further decline in the British pound. The Marlin oscillator is developing in a declining trend zone. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

                  Comment


                  • Forecast for USD/JPY on January 14, 2020

                    USD/JPY
                    Stock indices of the US market continue to set new records, along with them are rising Japanese indices and the USD/JPY pair. Yesterday, the S&P 500 grew by 0.70%, while the Nikkei 225 is adding a comparable 0.73% today. The China A50 Chinese stock index is up 0.40%, obviously, awaiting tomorrow's signing of the first part of a trade agreement with the United States. The United States also excluded China from the list of currency manipulators. Also, US corporate reports for the fourth quarter of 2019 are starting, forecasts are optimistic. Today, the largest banks are set to report: Citigroup (earnings forecast of $1.84 per share versus $1.61 in the third quarter), JPMorgan Chase & Co (forecast of $2.34 versus $1.98 earlier), Wells Fargo ($1.12 versus $1.21, but also good). Market growth may continue.

                    So, if the price goes above the resistance of the red line of the price channel, we are waiting for the price in the target range of 110.83/98 formed by the extreme on November 27, 2017 and February 11, 2016. Here is the Fibonacci level of 123.6% of the growth branch from August 26 to December 2. The indicated trend line (110.26) is the upper limit of the downward price channel originating in August 2015, this is its important - overcoming the line can trigger the pair's growth by another order of two or three figures. The strength of the channel boundary is supported by the Fibonacci level of 110.0%.

                    On the four-hour chart, the Marlin forms a divergence, perhaps before attacking the upper boundary of the price channel, the price will subside to the support of the MACD line on daily (109.50).

                    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

                    Analysis are provided by InstaForex


                    Comment


                    • Forecast for EUR/USD on January 15, 2020

                      EUR /USD
                      The dollar slightly strengthened on Tuesday, with the release of inflation data for the United States, but investors found the data not sufficient enough for a more decisive offensive. As a result, the euro showed a decline of only five points by the close of the day. The basic consumer price index added 0.1% for December against the expected 0.2%, while maintaining an annual value of 2.3%.

                      On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves sideways directly along the boundary of the bullish and bearish trends, which creates the risk of continued correctional growth to the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.1155. If the potential is not realized, a planned decrease to the Fibonacci level of 123.6% will follow at the price of 1.1073, where the MACD indicator line also passes.

                      On the four-hour chart, a price reversal from the MACD line was noted, but not fully realized. At the moment, the price is already above the balance line (red moving) and the Marlin oscillator is holding in the growth zone, which shows the price's intention to once again attack the MACD line. Now the condition for a further decrease is overcoming the price of yesterday's low.

                      In general, the situation is neutral and the euro may cheer up today's data on industrial production for November (forecast 0.3%), but tomorrow retail sales in the US for December will be released, the forecast for which is 0.5% for basic sales and 0.3% for general . It is likely that investors are planning more active actions for this data.

                      *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

                      Analysis are provided by InstaForex


                      Comment


                      • Gold has come to life

                        The storm continues to rage in the gold market. Despite the fact that only two weeks have passed since the beginning of the year, the precious metal has already managed to go to 7-year highs, collapse like a stone, and then begin to recover thanks to bad news about the trade war. Bloomberg is actively spreading rumors that tariffs on $360 billion of Chinese imports will remain in force, at least until the US presidential election, because the White House needs to assess how Beijing is fulfilling its obligation to increase purchases of American agricultural and other products. The trade war, which has lasted just under two years, does not seem to be going to stop, which means that demand for safe-haven assets will remain high.

                        The conflict in the Middle East is gradually fading. The market is dominated by the view that the current XAU/USD correction is due to the mass closure of long speculative positions. Hedge funds in the week of January 7 increased them to the highest level since the end of September, probably hoping that the confrontation between US and Iran will be long-lasting. Some are still hoping for it. The Standard Chartered Bank notes that the price movement due to geopolitics was stronger than previously expected. HSBC raised its forecast for gold for 2020 from $1560 to $1613 per ounce.

                        In my opinion, the reasons for the strengthening of the precious metal should not be found in geopolitics, but in the activities of central banks, in politics and in trade disputes instead. The Fed has made it clear that even exceeding the 2% inflation target will not force it to abandon passive behavior. The regulator is ready to endure the acceleration of consumer prices during the period of economic expansion, which is good news for the "bulls" on XAU/USD. The precious metal is traditionally perceived as a tool for hedging inflation risks, asits dynamics have a lot in common with the changes in the US CPI.

                        The dynamics of gold and American inflation:

                        The dog is buried in the increased sensitivity of gold to the real yield of US Treasury bonds. In December, inflation in the United States grew by 2.3%. This is the second best indicator for a calendar year since 2011, when its growth rate was at 3%. In 2018, consumer prices rose by 1.9%, and by 1.6% on average for 10 years.

                        Another factor supporting XAU / USD is the propensity of the world's leading central banks to ultra-soft monetary policy, which keeps global debt market rates close to historical lows. At the same time, a large-scale monetary stimulus contributes to the devaluation of currencies, which increases the attractiveness of gold. If global GDP does not recover as quickly as expected, regulators will further weaken monetary policy. With tariffs on $360 billion of Chinese imports still in place, this is more than likely.

                        Technically, after reaching the target of 113% for the "Shark pattern", a natural pullback to the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level followed. Important Pivot levels are also located here. The fact that the "bulls" managed to hold support at $1545-1548 per ounce, the hopes of restoring the upward trend remains.

                        Gold, daily chart

                        *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

                        Analysis are provided by InstaForex


                        Comment


                        • Prospects and trends for gold in January and February 2020

                          The consolidation in the gold market ended with the New Year holidays as well as rocket salvos in Iraq, where the United States killed the commander of the Kudes Iranian unit, Qassem Soleimani. Thank God, the global war did not happen, but the nerves of the investors completely lost, and they rushed to buy gold in full accordance with the forecast published in early December 2019. However, the time has come to look at the prospects of the precious metal and make adjustments to the assessment of the situation.

                          As we know, the position of traders in futures contracts traded on the CME exchange has the greatest impact on the price of gold. The latest data from the Traders Obligations Report - Commitments of Traders (COT) Reports, published by the US Commodity Futures Commission - CFTC, indicates an increase in the volume of new money entering the market. In addition, the Open Interest of the gold futures contract grew from 926 thousand to 1197 thousand contracts, or almost one third between November 29 and January 10.

                          Such an increase in the interest of market participants in gold, which took place against the backdrop of a rise in stock indices, suggests that the departure of the price of gold to the level of $ 1,600 per troy ounce was not an accident caused by the geopolitical situation. The assassination of the general was just an excuse for the precious metal to begin to rise again after a period of consolidation that lasted until the end of the fourth quarter.

                          Moreover, it is very important that the increase in the price of gold was supported by speculators Managed Money, whose long positions during the period from December to January grew from 225 thousand to 300 thousand contracts. According to the CFTC classification, Managed Money are a priori net buyers. Thus, the demand for gold from buyers was accompanied by the opening of new positions in the futures contract, which suggests fundamental reasons for the continuation of the current trend. Due to this, exchange traders felt the potential and began to increase positions.

                          If the increase in the price of gold was caused only by the development of events in the Middle East, then, firstly, we would not see a constant influx of new money that occurred in December, and secondly, Managed Money, which are speculators, could simply not react on the events that are happening.

                          So, for example, what happened in September 2019 and January 2020 in the oil market. The attack on the Saudi oil infrastructure was not supported by the influx of new money into the market, and speculators were in no hurry to open new long positions, which subsequently led to a decrease in oil prices. No demand - no price increase. In December, speculators bought oil, but almost no new positions were opened in the futures, which led to a decrease in oil prices as soon as the situation in the Persian Gulf area stabilized.

                          However, we have an increase in Open Interest in gold and an increase in purchases by speculators at the same time, which qualitatively distinguishes this situation from the situation in the oil market. On the other hand, the price of gold declined slightly after the crisis between Iran and the United States was resolved, and this is natural, but do not be fooled by the possibility of a potential reversal, since most likely there will not be a deep decline in the gold market.

                          We will analyze the positioning of traders in option contracts. The most liquid option contract now is the February contract OGG0 with the closure on January 28 (Fig. 1).

                          Figure 1: Open Interest in an OGGO Option Contract.

                          First of all, the significant predominance of "call" options over "put" options is noteworthy. The Put / Call Ratio coefficient is 0.71. This means that there are only 71 Put options for every 100 Call options. In the context of the growth of Open Interest, optional barriers may not withstand and miss the price higher. With this ratio, the importance of the Max Pain point located at 1500 also decreases, and returning to this point at the time the option contract expires is becoming less and less likely. This must be taken into account when opening gold sales positions. Option barriers hold the price well, but only when there is no trend on the market.

                          In this regard, it can be assumed that the levels of optional support are at 1510 and 1500. There are also graphic levels of price support, where gold can return by the end of the month for purely technical reasons. After that, there is a possibility of further price growth over the next three to six months, which implies a rise in gold to the level of $ 1,750 per troy ounce. Thus, sales to the levels of 1,500-1,510 dollars will be inappropriate, but such a price can be an ideal point for buying gold, unless, of course, by that time there will be a change in the mood of buyers in the futures market. Short-term goals for such purchases may be levels 1500, 1575 and 1600, formed by options such as "Call".

                          Today, the World Gold Council - published its forecast for 2020. The forecast indicates the main factors that, in the opinion of the Council, will affect the price of gold this year. It is assumed that financial uncertainty and low interest rates in most developed economies will support the price of gold, as investors will seek new sectors to protect investments and generate income. As a result, demand from central banks will also remain high. This, combined with investor interest, will allow gold to be added back to its value in all currencies.

                          According to WGC experts, the price impulse and positioning of traders will also support the price of gold. At the same time, volatility and expectations of weaker economic growth in the short term may lead to softer consumer demand, but structural economic reforms in India and China will support consumer demand in the long term.

                          Thus, traders trading can earn on price fluctuations by selling and buying precious metals on the best trading conditions, but investors should not forget that gold has provided them with a yield higher than the US dollar over the past twenty years, while performing a protection function risk investment.

                          By investing in gold and trading it in the short term, an investor can not only profit from fluctuations in price quotes, but also insure himself against unforeseen market risks. Be very careful and follow the rules of money management.

                          *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

                          Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                          Comment


                          • Control zones of USDJPY 1/20/2020

                            Last week's movement made it possible for a local accumulation zone to form. This happened within the average monthly move, which indicates the presence of limit sell orders. Purchases from current levels are not profitable, since the probability of closing the trade in January is above the zone of the monthly move below 30%. A model has not yet been formed for selling, which indicates the need to switch to standby mode.

                            Keeping part of the purchases opened at the beginning of this month is the optimal strategy, since the probability of absorption of the latest growth from current levels is below 20%.

                            To enter a short position requires the formation of an absorption pattern at the daily level. Closing of trading on Monday should occur below the low of last week. This will indicate the appearance of a major offer from significant market players. Work in the downward direction is more profitable, since the monthly range of the average stroke has already been overcome by the pair....

                            Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.
                            Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.
                            Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

                            *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

                            Analysis are provided by InstaForex


                            Comment


                            • Technical analysis recommendations for USD/JPY and its crosses

                              USD / JPY

                              The yen began in 2020 with the realization of what did not work out last year. So far, the pair closed the week in the bullish zone of the relative weekly cloud. Now, the main task of the players is fixing in this zone to increase in the near future. After that, monthly resistance will follow 110.70 - 110.83 - 111.40. However, breaking through the monthly boundaries is a more difficult task, since this will eliminate the monthly dead cross and mark the exit to the bullish zone of the relative Ichimoku cloud at the most upper time. In this situation, support is located at 109.50 (weekly cloud + monthly medium-term trend + daily short-term trend) - 109 (weekly Tenkan and the lower border of the cloud + daily Kijun and the upper border of the cloud) - Fixing below 108.08-30 can move players away from their goals for a long time.

                              EUR / JPY

                              At the beginning of the year, the pair attempted a new test of important resistance, but the first target of the daily target for breakdown of the cloud (122.55), now strengthened by the lower border of the weekly cloud (122.71), withstood the defense again. As a result, we observe the next development of a downward correction. The nearest support is the daytime cross of Ichimoku, first Tenkan (121.96), then Kijun (121.48), as well as the most protected area 121.24 (weekly Tenkan + daytime cloud + final line of the daytime cross of Ichimoku). At the same time, securing below can significantly affect the current balance of power, opening up new prospects for players to decline.

                              GBP / JPY

                              The pound / yen is trying to gain a foothold and stay in the bullish zone relative to the weekly cloud, using the cloud as support. Now, the main attention of the players to increase is aimed at breaking through the weekly short-term trend (143.65) and eliminating the dead crosses of Ichimoku at the daily (144.38 - 145.21) and monthly (145.07) time intervals. Moreover, breaking through these resistance forms new horizons and opportunities before the players to increase. The nearest support, in turn, can now be identified at 141.54 (monthly medium-term trend + daily cloud) and 140.34 - 139.12 (weekly levels + lower border of the daily cloud). Fixing below will change the existing balance and can lead to an active recovery of bearish sentiment.

                              Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)

                              Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                              Comment


                              • Forecast for AUD/USD on January 23, 2020

                                AUD / USD

                                The Australian dollar absorbed a positive market sentiment relative to the British pound yesterday, and just this morning, this news was actively played back on the positive employment data. By December, about 29 thousand people got a job, this is contrary and higher than the 15 thousand on the forecast. This makes the overall unemployment rate fell from 5.2% to 5.1%. In the Asian session, the growth of the "Australian dollar" graduated to 34 points, and the price exactly reached the MACD line on the daily chart. In the European session, exit above the line 0.6880 with consolidation above it and on Friday, the growth may extend to the price channel line 0.6903.

                                The price exceeded the MACD line on the four-hour chart but is still under the balance line, which means that the situation is developing mainly according to the older chart. For this day, everything will depend on whether the price can fix itself above the MACD line on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator in the zone of positive values is already a sign of the price's intention to overcome the resistance of the senior TF, but in any scenario this growth is corrective.

                                *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

                                Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                                Comment

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