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  • Take profit on AUD/USD pair

    Good evening, dear traders! Congratulations to those who took advantage of our trading idea for the AUD/USD pair, which was provided last November 25.

    Let me remind you that the idea was to develop the lower daily area in a downward trend:

    As you can see, the first goal is taken:

    The collapse did not follow, so I recommend taking profits.

    Good luck in trading and see you tomorrow morning!

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

    Comment


    • Forecast for EUR/USD on November 28, 2019

      EUR/USD
      On Wednesday, US statistics continued to delight investors and markets swayed towards the dollar. The euro lost 22 points. GDP for the third quarter amounted to 2.1% against the expectation of 1.9%, the volume of orders for durable goods increased by 0.6% in October against the forecast of -0.5%,

      On the daily chart, the price went below the MACD indicator line. If today closes with a black candle, then the price will consolidate below it with the prospect of a medium-term decline. The immediate goal of this movement at 1.0925 is the lowest level of September 3 and 12. In the four-week period, the price of 1.0720/30 can be reached - the lower line of the blue price channel (visible on a very tight chart). The Marlin oscillator lies in the horizon in the negative trend zone, volatility is likely to be low in the thin market today.

      On a four-hour chart, the price has consolidated under the blue line of MACD. The range between the levels of 1.0985-1.1026 is likely to be today (perhaps even tomorrow) a consolidation zone.

      Analysis are provided by InstaForex

      Comment


      • Why didn't the oil go upwards? Volume analysis for oil

        Good evening, dear traders! Yesterday, we gave a trading idea for the growth of oil but paid attention to the evening news on oil reserves in the United States. Let's analyze this situation on volumes.

        During the time of the opening of Europe, the price immediately went up and while it is on the way to the maximum of 58.74, there was another extremum - 58.56. At the breakdown of which, there was practically no doubt about the further increase in price. Looking at the chart, even the trend line up indicates purchases. However, It is very important that all this happened in the middle of the European session and before the release of the weekly news on Oil Reserves for about another 5 hours. That is, everyone only sees purchases.

        At the time of the opening of the American session, there was also no increase in prices. Although the upward trend still remained, which added confidence in the growth.

        In addition, at the time of the news release, summing up all mentioned above, the state of the price was such that all liquidity was not up, but, on the contrary, at the bottom with the nearest targets 58.13 and the American session of the previous day which is 57.76.

        Oil's approach to the maximum in Europe:

        Thus, the Europeans simply didn't have the courage to collect stocks before the reserves. Nevertheless, the stocks themselves came out large, which led to the sales of black gold.

        This analysis is based on the US oil futures.

        Analysis are provided by InstaForex


        Comment


        • Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, December 02,2019 When the European market opens, such economic data as Final Manufacturing PMI, German Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, French Final Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI will be unveiled. The US will publish such eocnomic reports as ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI.So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1073. Strong Resistance: 1.1067. Original Resistance: 1.1056. Inner Sell Area: 1.1045. Target Inner Area: 1.1019. Inner Buy Area: 1.0993. Original Support: 1.0982. Strong Support: 1.0971. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0965. (Disclaimer) *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

          Comment


          • Control zones for USD/CAD on 12/03/19

            During the second week, the pair is trading within the accumulation zone. This makes it possible to consider weekly extremes for finding entry points. The upper boundary is the maximum of the last week, which coincides with the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.3328-1.3319. Now, testing this zone will be decisive for the entire upward movement of the last month.

            Working within the framework of the flat implies partial consolidation of transactions during tests of significant extremes.

            An alternative model will be developed if the closure of today's trading occurs above the Weekly Control Zone 1/2. This will open the way for further growth. The nearest goal, in turn, will be the maximum of October. The test of which will increase the probability of a large offer.

            Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

            Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

            Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

            Analysis are provided by InstaForex

            Comment


            • Oil kings can do everything?

              Oil is slowly recovering from a major sell-off on the last day of autumn. Taking advantage of the thin market after Thanksgiving, speculators decided to get rid of their long positions ahead of the December OPEC+ meeting. The simplest thing that the cartel and Russia can do is to prolong the agreement to reduce production by several months after March 2020. However, how will the market react to this? Isn't it better to avoid a massive sell-off before the results of the meeting are known?

              If speculators sold oil at the November 29 auction, before that, on the contrary, they were actively building up long positions. By the end of the week, November 26, WTI net-longs increased by 15%, gross longs increased by 12%, while shorts fell by 14%. Approximately the same numbers could be seen on Brent.

              Brent Speculative Dynamics

              It is peculiar that black gold was not moving in unison with US stocks at the turn of autumn and winter. The latter were marked by a serious collapse after the White House introduced duties on imports of steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina, while oil grew in response to rumors of Saudi Arabia's desire to expand production cuts from 1.2 million bpd to 1.6 million bpd, at least until June 2020. Riyadh needs to carry out an initial public offering of shares in the state-owned company Aramco, the scale of which is estimated at approximately $25 billion. If Brent is listed below $60 per barrel, it is unlikely that buyers will grab paper of the oil company like hotcakes.

              However, according to Goldman Sachs, even if OPEC+ expands its obligations by 400 thousand bpd by the end of June 2020, this is unlikely to lead to a serious increase in prices. The bank predicts that North Sea-grade quotes will dangle around $60 per barrel for most of next year.

              Oil support is provided by the first growth above the critical level of 50 in business activity in China's manufacturing sector since April. China is the largest consumer of black gold in the world, and an increase in demand of 64 thousand bpd in the third quarter is good news for Brent bulls and WTI. Moreover, the IEA predicts that the figure will reach a record high of 13.6 million bpd in 2020. I have no doubt that this will be so if the trade war between Washington and Beijing does not become history. Otherwise, weak global demand will continue to put downward pressure on black gold prices.

              At the same time, the growth of shale production in the United States significantly affects the market balance. In September, the United States closed a full month as a net exporter of black gold for the first time since 1940. Its deliveries abroad exceeded imports by 89 thousand bpd. It is Interesting that the last time the value of net imports exceeded 12 million was ten years ago.

              Technically, without leaving Brent quotes beyond the downward trading channel, the implementation of the Double Bottom pattern can be forgotten. On the contrary, a breakthrough of support at $56 per barrel, which corresponds to the lower boundary of the triangle, the risks of a downward trend recovery will increase.

              Analysis are provided by InstaForex

              Comment


              • Forecast for EUR/USD on December 11, 2019

                EUR/USD
                Yesterday's indicators on sentiment in business circles of the eurozone greatly exceeded expectations and the single currency closed the day with an increase of 28 points. The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment index for December jumped from -1.0 to 11.2 points while expecting growth to 2.2 points, the German index grew from -2.1 to 10.7 while expecting 1.1 points.

                On the daily chart, the price exceeded strong resistance of the Fibonacci level of 123.6% and the embedded line of the price channel. The price exit above the signal level of 1.1116 (December 4 high) opens the way for further growth to the Fibonacci level of 110.0%. Today, the main news of the day will be the US central bank's decision on monetary policy, followed by a press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. We do not expect strong movements in the euro until the evening, as it was yesterday.

                What will be the Fed's forecasts on the economy and forecasts of the FOMC members on rates? The most obvious answer lies on the surface - economic forecasts will be moderately optimistic, rate forecasts will shift towards holding the current 1.75% almost until the fall-winter of next year. And if it turns out that way, then investors can count on maintaining the rate almost until the spring of 2021, until the new president takes office. A financial crisis may hinder this situation, the chances of the deployment of which are great next year, but so far this factor has not been taken into account.

                In general, we expect the euro to return under the newfound support from the Fibonacci lines and the price channel and a further decrease in the price to the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.0985.

                On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator reached the boundary with the growth territory, from which the indicator can turn down, followed by a price drop.

                Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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