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  • Control zones GBP/USD 10/07/19

    The pair is trading between two significant zones. The resistance was Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.2388-1.2372, and the weekly CZ 1.2246-1.2213 became the support. To continue medium-term growth, closing of trading above the level of 1.2388 on Monday will be required. This will pave the way for the September maximum. This model has a 50% chance of working out.

    The continuation of the medium-term growth may become the main model for the coming week, as many pairs associated with the dollar formed a reversal pattern in the direction of strengthening.

    An alternative model will be developed if the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 test leads to an increase in supply and a halt to growth. This will indicate the formation of a local accumulation zone, where the main goals will be the extremes of last week.


    Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.
    Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
    Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zonethat reflects the average volatility over the past year.


    News are provided by InstaForex

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    • Fractal analysis of Bitcoin on October 8

      Forecast for October 8:
      Analytical review of cryptocurrency on a scale of H1:

      For the Bitcoin instrument, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 9026.00, 8811.75, 8666.36, 8379.42, 8287.60, 8039.21, 7893.53 and 7698.41. Attention! This instrument is characterized by medium-term trend trading. Here, as expected, the price formed a local structure for the top of October 7. In addition, this instrument has a good correlation with the euro / yen.

      The range for entering the market for the purchase is 7948.00 - 8380.00. We expect the development of the upward cycle after the price passes the noise range 8287.60 - 8379.42. In this case, the first goal is 8666.36. Meanwhile, price consolidation is in the range of 8666.36 - 8811.75, as well as a possible rollback to correction. The potential value for the top, where it makes sense to close the position - 9026.00. The range 8039.21 - 7893.53 is a key support for the ascending structure. Its passage at the price will lead to the cancellation of this structure. In this case, the first goal is 7698.41. However, to trade in a downward direction, it makes sense when the local initial conditions for a downward cycle are formed.

      The main trend is the initial conditions for the top of October 7.

      Trading recommendations:
      Buy: 7948.00 - 8380.00 Stop Loss: 7891.00 Take profit: 8666.36
      To continue :
      Stop Loss: 8287.60 Take profit: 9026.00

      Analysis are provided by InstaForex

      Comment


      • Forecast for AUD/USD on October 9, 2019

        AUD/USD
        the opening of the week, the Australian dollar has developed on the scale of a four-hour chart. All days, until this morning, the price was reflected from the support of the MACD line of a four-hour scale. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator penetrates into the growth zone.

        Now the aussie is ready to close the gap formed at the beginning of the week. The purpose of growth is the line of the price channel of the daily scale near the MACD line at around 0.6790. We the fall to resume from the target level.

        Analysis are provided by InstaForex


        Comment


        • Gold breaks into battle

          Gold quickly returned above the psychologically important level of $1,500 per ounce due to weak statistics on US business activity. The United States feel the pain of trade wars and may well pull the rest of the world into the abyss, as has happened in the past more than once. At the same time, neither the US labor market report nor Jerome Powell's statement about the launch of the asset-purchase program made an impression on the precious metal. Obviously, investors are waiting for something. It is easy to guess that this is news from the negotiating table of Washington and Beijing.

          Despite the fact that the Federal Reserve chairman made it clear that the upcoming program for the purchase of short-term securities is not QE, its start can be considered a positive factor for the bulls on XAU/USD. Increasing the activity of a large buyer is a good argument in favor of rising prices and falling profitability. Non-interest-bearing gold is not able to compete with bonds if rates on them rise. If they, on the contrary, decline, the precious metal begins to enjoy increased popularity. This is confirmed by the high demand for products of ETF funds. Their stocks have been increasing for 17 consecutive days, which is the longest winning streak since 2009. The total size of the indicator is only 35 tons below the record high that took place in 2012.

          Gold ETF Stock Dynamics

          The strong growth in stocks of specialized exchange-traded funds and the stability of gold against a strong dollar allow Citigroup to adhere to its bullish forecast for XAU/USD. The company believes that the precious metal will grow to $1,700 per ounce within 6-12 months. But on the side of its fans plays and increased activity of central banks! Thus, the People's Bank of China has been building up gold reserves for the 10th consecutive month. During this period, it acquired 99.8 tons. As a result, stocks rose to 62.64 million ounces. According to the World Gold Council, 14 regulators from various countries continue to diversify their reserves in favor of precious metals in order to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. In 2018, central banks from around the world bought $27 billion worth of gold, a record high.

          The dynamics of gold reserves in China

          While central banks and ETF fans are buying gold, speculators prefer to exit. In the week of October 1, their net longs fell to their lowest level since late July. It's not necessary to be frightened by it. Financial managers quite logically take profits on the eve of an important event - trade negotiations between the US and China. Most likely, their impact on financial markets will be much greater than the publication of the minutes of the September meetings of the Fed and the ECB.

          Technically, the "Splash and Shelf" pattern takes place on the daily gold chart. Breakthrough of the lower boundary of the consolidation range of $1490-1520 will launch another correctional wave in the direction of $1440-1445 per ounce. In contrast, a successful assault on the resistance at $1520 will strengthen the risks of restoring the "bullish" trend and continuing the rally in the direction of the target at 161.8% on the AB=CD pattern.

          Analysis are provided by InstaForex


          Comment


          • GBP/USD. Turns of the British currency: Johnson repeats the path of Theresa May

            Passion for Brexit reaches its zenith. In the afternoon, the pound paired with the dollar soared to the borders of the 30th figure (that is, to 5-month highs), responding to a statement by European Commission President Juncker that the deal between London and Brussels is "ready." But literally an hour later, the pair collapsed 200 points down after the first comments by representatives of the British Parliament. The opposition did not skimp on epithets: in particular, Jeremy Corbyn called the draft deal "corrupt", adding that Johnson's dealings were "even worse than Theresa May". However, despite such harsh comments, the market still expects the British prime minister to submit the draft deal to the House of Commons on Saturday.

            For the sixth consecutive day, the pound is subject to strong volatility, showing unprecedented price fluctuations, both in the direction of growth and a downward course. The last time such powerful price spurts were observed in October 2018, when the parties were one step away from signing the deal. The pair jumped from the 34th to the 42nd figure in a few weeks. But then the events did not unfold so rapidly, although in general, the situations are of a similar nature.

            At that time, Michel Barnier, the chief negotiator from the European Union, was the main newsmaker. Exactly a year ago, he said that the deal could already be concluded during the EU summit, which, like this year, was held on October 17-18. Brussels and London then were able to find a common denominator in many key issues, moreover, within the framework of Theresa May's Chequers plan, which the future Prime Minister Boris Johnson so eagerly criticized. May proposed to solve the Irish question in a different way: she agreed to establish checkpoints on the border and introduce "certain administrative procedures". EU representatives refused to consider other options, and interpreted the proposed conditions as a compromise. As you know, the deputies of the House of Commons categorically rejected the proposed conditions, failing the vote three times.

            The Irish question is still a central issue today. On the one hand, Johnson made more significant concessions from the European Union: the customs border will pass through the Irish Sea, and the same customs rules will apply in Northern Ireland as in the rest of the UK. But on the other hand, such concessions did not satisfy the Northern Irish Unionists. After a two-day political bidding, the DUP issued an official statement declining the deal. In their opinion, the proposed agreement "does not meet the long-term interests of Northern Ireland", and in the short term, residents of this region may face a significant increase in prices.

            As mentioned above, Labour also criticized Johnson's deal. And not just because of the Irish border. According to Jeremy Corbyn, the economic part of the agreement threatens the food security of Great Britain, and can also lead to "violation of the rights of workers and environmental standards." Also, according to the Labour leader, the deal will be a blow to the British health care system. Representatives of the Scottish National Party (which has 35 members of the British Parliament) have joined Johnson's critics, adding that they will not vote for the deal.

            Thus, at the moment it is not clear how the prime minister plans to "push through" the deal through the millstones of Parliament. Without the support of the Youth Democratic Party, the Labour Party and the Scottish nationalists, he will have to rely on the consolidation of Conservative deputies (20 of whom he expelled from the party for indiscipline) and representatives of other political forces.

            At the same time, according to information from the British press, Johnson in Parliament may express his readiness to violate the law, obliging him to ask Brussels to postpone Brexit. This information may be the usual "bluff" on the part of the current prime minister, but, given the odiousness of his personality, such a scenario cannot be ruled out.

            In general, according to most experts, if Johnson fails to agree on a deal in Parliament, he will initiate early parliamentary elections to bring the draft deal back to the new House of Commons.

            Thus, Johnson will have a difficult battle in the walls of Parliament. Judging by the dynamics of the pound, traders do not lose hope of agreeing on a deal this Saturday: otherwise, the GBP/USD pair will return first to the middle of the 24th figure, and then (less impulsive) to the levels of annual lows, that is, to the bottom of the 20th figure. If a "miracle" happens and the prime minister finds votes in Parliament, the pound paired with the dollar will fly up to 1.35-1.37, up to the 40th figure, after the deal between London and Brussels is officially agreed. And although these price values look abnormally high, it is worth recalling that on the eve of the 2016 referendum, the GBP/USD pair was trading in the area of 1.43-1.46, and after the announcement of the results, the plebiscite plunged to 1.25-1.27 in a few weeks, followed by a decline to the bottom of 20- x figures. "The return trip to an upward direction" may not be so impulsive, but at the same time, the resolution of many years of intrigue will allow the pair to grow by at least 500-600 points. As the saying goes, The Show Must Go On ...

            Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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