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  • Control zones Bitcoin 08/19/19

    Bitcoin is trading above the balance level for the second day. This became possible after stopping the fall during the test of monthly control zone in August. The middle course zone was also tested at the end of last week. The likelihood of an increase in the value of bitcoin increases. You should not expect a sharp increase in the price, however, while the balance marks are below the course, you should keep the purchases open at the end of last week. Sales can be closed completely, since the probability of falling below the level of $10,000 in August is 30%.

    Favorable price for the purchase of the instrument will be at any level below $10,000. The first growth goal can be considered at the $10,749 mark. When bitcoin reaches this level, a partial consolidation of purchases and the transfer of the rest to breakeven will be required.

    An alternative model has a probability of implementation below 30%, which does not make it possible to enter sales. The instrument is trading near the monthly control zone. This makes a further decline unlikely. If the decline occurs below $10,000, then the probability of a return to this mark in August will be at 70%, and in case of exit and closing of the month's trading below this level, the probability will increase to 90%.

    Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
    Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
    Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

    Comment


    • Control zones GBPUSD 08/20/19

      Today's plan is to bring purchases previously opened to WCZ 1/2 1.2199-1.2182. When testing the zone, consolidating part of the position will be required, and the rest should be brought to breakeven. The main pattern for entering the position will be the "false breakdown" of yesterday's high after the WCZ 1/2 test. If this happens, you must completely eliminate the purchase and enter a short position. The potential fall can reach a monthly low.

      Work in the upward direction is still a priority. Until WCZ 1/2 has been tested, another entry into purchases is possible in case of a "false breakdown" of yesterday's low. If this happens, there will be an opportunity to enter with a favorable risk to profit ratio.

      An alternative model will be developed if the pair overcomes the WCZ 1/2, and the closure of today's US session occurs above the zone. This will indicate the completion of the downward medium-term cycle and the transition to the phase of the upward impulse.

      Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

      Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

      Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

      Analysis are provided by InstaForex

      Comment


      • Will the Fed limit itself to one rate cut this year? The pound will remain volatile in the near future

        The pound fell in the morning following the release of a report on UK public sector borrowing, while the euro continued to trade in a narrow side channel against the US dollar in anticipation of the July Federal Reserve minutes

        The publication of the minutes will show how the committee looks at a further cut in interest rates this year, and to what level the rate can be reduced.

        This week, a number of Fed leaders have already expressed their views, but it is premature to draw any conclusions. Let me remind you during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which was held on July 30-31, they decided to lower the interest rate by a quarter point, although some economists suggested that the Fed would lower rates immediately by half a percent. This was the first drop in more than 10 years.

        Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that this decrease was purely corrective in the middle of the cycle, and it would not be entirely correct to count on a long reduction cycle in the future. Much will depend on the data on the economy that will come in the 3rd quarter of this year. So far, the only thing that could push the issue of lowering the rate by another quarter of a percentage point into consideration is the aggravation of the trade war between the United States and China, which is now at an impasse. Let me remind you that the new trade duties will come into force on September 1 of this year. In addition, very low inflation continues to be a problem for the Fed.

        Given the fact that the unemployment rate in the US is at a record low and household wages increase without creating additional inflationary pressure, the Fed is just thinking about the risks of deflation, which many Asian countries suffer from.

        Do not forget about the constant criticism of the work of the committee by Donald Trump, who "hung all the dogs" on the current Fed chairman Jerome Powell for what he delays in lowering rates and resuming the asset purchase program. By the way, the eurozone and the European Central Bank may return to such a program in the near future, which will further strengthen the US dollar against a number of risky assets and create additional problems for the export of American goods. In any case, Powell is still fighting off all threats from the US president, adhering to the neutrality that is so cared for within the Federal Reserve.

        As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it has not changed at all. Bears will attempt to update last week's lows with a test of support levels of 1.1060 and 1.1030. If bulls make an attempt to build an upward correction in a pair, then it is best to consider short positions in the trading instrument from the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.1130. A larger resistance level is the area of 1.1160.

        GBPUSD

        The British pound slightly fell against the US dollar after the release of the report on net borrowing in the UK public sector. According to data in July this year, borrowing fell by 1.3 billion pounds after a larger reduction of 3.5 billion pounds a year ago. Net public sector demand for cash in the UK in July fell by 14.8 billion pounds against 17.6 billion pounds a year ago. All this suggests that the situation with Brexit, although not so brightly, continues to affect macroeconomic indicators in various fields, which negatively affects the overall economic indicator.

        In any case, the pound's further movement as a whole, like this whole year, will continue to be based on rumors and rebuttals from Brexit news, which exacerbates the overall picture and exposes the pound to excessive volatility.

        As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, the upward trend is limited by the resistance of 1.2175, a breakthrough of which will build a new wave of growth and lead to the renewal of highs in the areas of 1.2220 and 1.2270. The medium-term boundary of the downward channel is above this range and it would be impossible to go beyond it without a positive outcome of the situation with Brexit.

        Analysis are provided by InstaForex

        Comment


        • GBP/USD. Light at the end of the tunnel: Merkel provoked the growth of the British currency

          The pound paired with the dollar today updated three-week highs, reaching the middle of the 22nd figure. The fundamental picture of today did not portend such price leaps: the European voyage of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was more of a formal nature, and Thursday's economic calendar for the GBP/USD pair is completely empty. Nevertheless, bulls of the pair found a reason for the upward impulse - and this reason was provided to them by none other than German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

          Looking ahead, it is worth noting that the pound is now growing more on emotions - traders of the pair have been trading in constant fear and pessimism about the Brexit prospects for too long. Therefore, when among the gloomy news background a ghostly, but still "light at the end of the tunnel" had appeared, the pound's reaction was not long in coming. Moreover, at the beginning of today the head of the German government met her colleague from Britain with rather harsh rhetoric. She stated that "Britain has 30 days to resolve the Brexit issue to find an alternative to backstop." French President Emmanuel Macron, in turn, noted that there is no more time for additional negotiations on a new agreement - the parties need to build on the main positions of the agreements already reached. Boris Johnson, in his peculiar manner, "accepted the challenge" of Berlin and said that he would spend 30 days allotted to him to convince the EU that there was a viable alternative to the "back-up" mechanism.

          This rhetoric did not surprise, but did not upset, investors: even on the eve of Johnson's visit, it became clear that the parties would defend their positions. Earlier this week, the British prime minister sent a written appeal to the head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, with a request to review the deal, primarily regarding the prospects for the Irish border. Brussels rejected the offer and lamented that London did not offer constructive ideas for alternatives to backstop.

          In other words, traders were prepared for the fact that the parties at the meeting would only repeat the theses already voiced and disperse "in the corners of the ring" without any result. However, Angela Merkel still went beyond investors' expectations: she announced that London and Brussels will try to create a system that, firstly, preserves the terms of the Belfast Agreement, and secondly, retains Northern Ireland's access to the single EU market. In other words, we are talking about the notorious alternative to the backstop mechanism. The German chancellor emphasized that the parties will try to find a compromise solution in a relatively short time, that is, until October 31. Summing up, Merkel emphasized that London "can still solve the crisis."

          In my opinion, the German Chancellor accidentally remembered the Belfast Agreement - after all, the issue of the Irish border is considered not only in terms of economic and customs barriers. Let me remind you that for half a century, there has been a bloody ethnopolitical conflict on the island of Ireland - the rebel forces sought the withdrawal of Northern Ireland from the UK with the subsequent accession to the Republic of Ireland. According to various estimates, about four thousand people died during the long-running conflict. A ceasefire was reached only in 1998, when the parties entered into the aforementioned "Belfast Agreement". The main points of this agreement state that the Northern Irish separatists renounce their territorial claims, and London, in turn, introduces local government and Parliamentarism in this region.

          In addition, the agreement reached eliminated the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and since then there has been a special economic zone regime. If London upsets this fragile balance that has been successfully working over the past 20 years, Britain could return to the chaos of political confrontation with the separatist forces of Northern Ireland. In particular, last year the Northern Irish party Sinn Fein announced that it was initiating a new referendum on accession to the Republic of Ireland. Under the conditions of a hard Brexit, taking into account possible economic losses and the effect of a tight border, the outcome of such a referendum is not difficult to predict.

          Obviously, both London and Brussels are well aware of the risks they face. That is why the current (albeit symbolic) step of Merkel allowed the pound to demonstrate a significant correction throughout the market, including paired with the dollar. However, long positions on the GBP/USD pair currently look risky - after all, we must not forget that the parties only promised to "consider various options". And it is far from a fact that the proposed options will ultimately be agreed/approved by Johnson, the European Union and, ultimately, by the deputies of the House of Commons. Therefore, with a high degree of probability, the spring of nervousness will continue to contract to a certain limit, putting pressure on the foot. But if the parties still find a compromise and the likelihood of a deal will increase again, this "spring" will fire an impulsive price increase, and marks 1.25-1.27 will not be any limit.

          Analysis are provided by InstaForex

          Comment


          • The trade war between China and the United States is in full swing and could lead to a new Fed rate cut

            Recently, Donald Trump decided to increase trade duties on a group of goods totaling about $ 300 billion to 15%, which was previously assumed that it would be 10%. These duties will be effective from September 2019. Also, duties will be increased not by 25%, but by 30%, for a group of goods worth $ 250 billion from October 1. This was a response to China's imposition of $ 75 billion in fees, which will be in effect from September 1 to December 15. Beijing's move was also a response to Trump's previously imposed duties. In general, a chain reaction is started. At the same time, the parties continue to report that negotiations are ongoing and from time to time they signal a certain progress that for some reason no one is watching. However, the intensity of trade relations between China and the States is clearly visible, which leads to a slowdown in the global economy, as well as the economies of the States themselves and China. Naturally, not without another message on Twitter from Trump. According to the president of the United States, China should not have introduced new duties, but now, it has run into an increase in duties from the States.

            In addition, Donald Trump once again "drove" under the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, writing on Twitter that "he does not know who the worst enemy of America is, Xi Jingping or Jerome Powell." A hint, of course, of Powell's reluctance to take and reduce the rate immediately by 100 points, as Trump wants. A little later, there was a loud statement that China had stolen billions or even trillions of dollars of intellectual property from America for years and was going to continue this activity. Trump said that "it's time to put an end to this." The US president also appealed to American companies having production facilities in China with an appeal to look for an alternative as soon as possible, and even better to return to America. The fact that the production of any product in America is more expensive than in China several times, and accordingly, the price of many goods now produced in China will increase multiple times if production is transferred to the States, Trump does not care. End consumers will pay, and the company will suffer losses, sales of which, of course, will fall due to price growth and reduced demand. Meanwhile, Trump will receive new tax revenues, or not Trump, but the new US President, whose elections will be held in 2020. It is precisely the second term of Trump's presidency that now raises a huge number of questions. China openly expects Trump to lose the election. The longer the trade war with China lasts, the worse America's economy feels, and the better ordinary citizens feel the recession, the less chance that Trump will be re-elected. Even if Trump is right and "China has profited from America for years," the electorate is primarily interested in its own welfare, prices in stores, and the lack of a deficit in the goods it needs. Under Trump, all Chinese products have risen in price, while American or European counterparts are much more expensive. If a trade war also begins with the European Union, then the Americans, who are big fans of the European automobile industry, will also experience a rise in prices for European cars. In this case, it is unlikely that Trump's fans will increase in the election. And, of course, all this will have a negative impact on the US dollar.

            Analysis are provided by InstaForex

            Comment


            • TForecast for GBP / USD pair on August 28, 2019

              GBP / USD pair
              Yesterday, the growth of the pound negates the fall of Monday. However, on the daily chart, it met insurmountable resistance of the indicator line of the balance line (red), which is currently slightly below the indicator line of the MACD trend line (blue).

              A double divergence has already formed on the four-hour chart. The reversal signal of the Marlin oscillator has amplified while the market is still "hot". The signal line of the oscillator is still in the growth zone and in fact, the price is higher than all indicator lines. On the daily chart, the price can gather strength and go on the assault to the second target of 1.2350/81. To fix the primary reversal signals, it is necessary to fix the price below the minimum of yesterday, which will also correspond to the price drift under the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart. The MACD line of four-hour scale also tends to be at this level. Probably, a key level is being formed here. In case of a breakout, you should wait before sales.

              Analysis are provided by InstaForex

              Comment


              • Britain on the verge of a constitutional crisis

                The pound fell sharply by 100 points on the news that Boris Johnson could try to interrupt parliament for a month - from September 11 to October 14 - so that Parliament could not stop Johnson from withdrawing Britain out of the EU without an agreement.

                This is a constitutional crisis. The queen has such a right to suspend the work of the parliament, at the proposal of the prime minister. However, such an action on this occasion is a clear crisis. Given the minimal majority of conservatives in parliament - it is very likely - to have a political crisis and new elections.

                Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                Comment


                • Control zones AUDUSD 09/02/19

                  The August movement is a complex impulse structure. At the beginning of last week, there was consolidation above WCZ 1/2, which indicates an upward priority. Today, the WCZ 1/2 0.6723-0.6716 test is taking place again. Purchases from this zone are profitable, since the growth target continues to be the weekly control zone 0.6838-0.6825.

                  The flat movement of August implies the continuation of work from monthly extremes, so they should be taken into account in trading plans. To break the ascending structure, it will be necessary to close today's trading below 0.6716. This will make it possible to resume work in a downward direction. The first goal of the fall will be the low of August.

                  Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
                  Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
                  Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

                  Analysis are provided by InstaForex
                  ]

                  Comment


                  • Weekly market review

                    Greetings, dear traders! Congratulations to everyone on the beginning of autumn and, hopefully, on the increase in volatility associated with the end of the holiday period, including the bank traders, and the Forex market, as you know, is the interbank market, and the private traders who are here – random people.

                    The first week of autumn is an important trading period associated with a change in order placements in anticipation of non-farm payrolls, and after them. Often, it is the "nanoc" that one ends and other tendencies of instruments related to the American dollar begin. Today, Monday, according to most professional traders, is the worst time to open new trading positions and decide on a change in trading trends. Moreover, it is also today, September 2, 2019 - is a holiday in the USA and Canada - Labor Day. Therefore, let us congratulate the United States labor teams on this holiday!

                    For us, this means that trading during this evening will take place in narrow ranges and it is not worth waiting for super-movements from the markets today. Only "Donald Trump" can break the "trade silence" with his Twitter. Sometimes, it seems to me that Donald is an avid trader who "rules" his unprofitable positions with his own, often diametrically opposite, statements on the network.

                    Today, the main trading idea related to the American dollar for me is to strengthen the dollar in USD/JPY and GBP/USD, which gave last week. I also have very interesting ideas on certain crosses, which will be published soon.

                    What to do for traders in a period of low volatility? Of course, developing trading skills in the "strategy tester", as well as working on the analysis of profitable / unprofitable positions of the last week, in order to understand - how you earn and how much you lose and at what volumes and at what time you have it is obtained most efficiently. Good luck in trading! And see you at the evening reviews of cross-courses!

                    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                    Comment


                    • Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 04/09/2019 Technical Market Overview: The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the low at the level of 1.0926, broke above the technical resistance at the level of 1.0964 and made a local high at the level of 1.0979. The momentum is off the negative area and the stochastic is off the oversold territory. The next target for the local pull-back or correction is seen at the level of 1.0997. Nevertheless, if bears continue to make pressure on the market, the next target for them is seen at the level of 1.0908, which is technical support at the weekly time frame. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.1285 WR2 - 1.1224 WR1 - 1.1084 Weekly Pivot Point - 1.1025 WS1 - 1.0886 WS2 - 1.0818 WS3 - 1.0681 Trading Recommendations: The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0814 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1250. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

                      Comment


                      • Golden cosmos

                        Good evening, dear traders. As promised, here's the evening forecast for gold. Sorry, was not able to publish it in the morning, because it has already started to work.

                        The trade wars drove gold to an incredible $ 1,550 per troy ounce. This is the largest gold trend. for many years! Over the past year, gold has passed a record of 36,000p and continues to storm the high, knocking out the stops of medium-term sellers. And just yesterday, according to perhaps the most effective Price Action trading strategy, a pattern called "daily absorption in the trend" has appeared - which speaks of an ongoing trend and after which it is recommended to buy. Today, to the American session, there was a magnificent rollback, allowing you to go into longs at the best price.

                        On the other hand, sellers who have been selling gold from highs for two weeks now have to hide their risks only for one single extreme - this year's high - quotation 1554. Although, gold has not yet risen above. This is a trap that will be slammed in the near future and trap sellers.

                        I propose to take a closer look from the rollbacks to the longs - with a take on updating 1554 and higher. Often breakdowns of weekly extremes for gold are very volatile - and give a positive slippage, on which you can earn good profit. This is the first part of the plan.

                        The second part is for those traders who are buying in a large amount (scalpers). The idea is very simple and is to work after the breakdown of 1554, which for example to 1560-1570, and then to return to the broken level of 1554. This is an old scalping technique in the overbought market to work on the consolidations of large buyers after the breakdown of key extremes. It is due to this that the price decline to a broken level, which becomes support.

                        Be that as it may, you can earn in both cases.

                        I wish you success in trading and follow the policy of money management!

                        News are provided by InstaForex

                        Comment


                        • Taking profit on USD/JPY and GOLD

                          This is not a random number, because the method of "hunting for stops" involves work tied to the mistakes of bank traders. The average amount of stops which makes these 100p. And you can easily check it by looking at the open positions of banks online right now. Thus, we still have positions in crosses - which are also all in the "plus".

                          In addition, fix part of the profit from the position on gold left overnight + 430p, and hold the last part at the level of 1500:

                          Tomorrow is an important day for currency traders. I have noticed many times that if you give out before non-game plus - you have to leave, because the news is extremely unpredictable. Therefore, I prefer to trade after news trends, and for this, you need to have patience. The best choice for traders to trade on the USD news (if you are not a stop hunter) is to sit them in crosses. And fortunately, our diversification tactics make this easy to do. We continue to hold positive positions on AUD/CHF or NZD/CHF according to the recommendations given earlier.

                          Good luck in the trading and see you at the next reviews!

                          Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                          Comment


                          • Forecast for EUR/USD on September 10, 2019

                            EUR/USD

                            On Monday, the euro made another attempt to work out the target level of 1.1073 - the Fibonacci level of 123.6%, but this time stopped short of positive news about the growth of Germany's trade balance in July from 18.0 billion euros to 20.2 billion and ideas of Germany to establish a parallel state structure for attracting investment through increased public debt, which turned out to be insufficient.



                            On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator shows the intention of a reversal down from the boundary with the growth territory. This is the first, but weak and the only sign of a possible price reversal down, there are no others even on the four-hour chart.



                            On H4, the price develops above the indicator lines of balance and MACD. Marlin is also in the upward trend zone. If the price consolidates above the level of 1.1073, growth to the Fibonacci level of 110.0% is possible at the price of 1.1157. The development of the downward trend is possible after the price goes below the MACD line on H4 (1.1006) and under the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.0986. In this case, the target level is the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.0844.

                            *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

                            Comment


                            • Forecast for AUD / USD pair on September 11, 2019

                              AUD / USD pair
                              In the last two days, the Australian dollar has fixed above both lines of the price channels (red and blue) for the weekly and monthly scales. The price is also higher than the balance lines and MACD daily chart. The nearest target is open to July 10 minimum at 0.691. Subsequent consolidation above a new level opens the second target of 0.6962, which is the upper border of the blue (weekly) price channel.

                              For the development of a falling scenario, the price should fall below the support of the MACD line on the four-hour chart at 0.6815. Under this condition, the downward target below opens to 0.6685, which is the embedded line of the red (monthly) price channel.

                              Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                              Comment


                              • Gold: a great opportunity to buy at the level of $1480-50

                                According to Bart Melek, the head of TD Securities, the strengthening of the dollar, the growth of the value of US stocks and bond yields reflected on the prospects for gold and long positions in the asset. "The yellow metal fell to just below $1,500 an ounce at the beginning of the week, and we think that the price could move to the support level between $1,480–50 if the Fed doesn't weaken the policy at the next meeting," Meleka said. At this stage, the gold market believes that the US central bank will keep rates at the current level without any unconditional commitments to aggressively lower rates in the future. "In our opinion, no matter what central banks do over the next few months, the global economy will decline due to weaker trading activity amid a trade war between the US and China."

                                The largest world markets are under attack. Germany is showing weakness, China continues to disappoint with its performance, and there are signs that the US economy is also slowing. Given these facts and that monetary policy is not very productive, the projected decline in the price of gold should be considered as an excellent buying opportunity, since central banks need to be aggressive in their actions in order to avoid a sharp drop in global activity next year.

                                Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                                Comment

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