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  • GBP/USD. Will Brexit trip over Gibraltar?

    The pound is again under pressure because of the vague prospects of Brexit. The forced pause in this matter created an informational vacuum, but yesterday alarming signals were received regarding further approval algorithm for the deal. And it's not just the obstinacy of the British deputies: some representatives of Europe also expressed their dissatisfaction with the draft "divorce" agreement.

    Another stumbling block was the British overseas territory – Gibraltar. A few centuries ago, the British won this strategically important piece of territory from the Spaniards, and since then disputes over its ownership have not subsided between countries. However, the discussion of this issue was conducted in a sluggish mode for many years: just now Madrid found a reason to intensify this process, in other words - took advantage of the situation.

    Although a few months ago, Theresa May held talks with the Spanish side regarding Gibraltar, and this point was considered a resolved matter. In particular, in the spring of this year, Brussels proposed to give the Spaniards the veto over Gibraltar's future trade relations with the EU. After months of negotiations, the parties reached a compromise – at least, this was stated by the official representatives of Spain after the October EU summit.

    The Spanish foreign minister then stressed that Gibraltar would not be a problem for signing the Brexit deal, despite the fact that some key aspects of future relations had not yet been resolved. The parties refused to disclose the details of the agreements, but according to insider leaks, London and Madrid agreed on the rights of citizens – primarily those citizens who are not British citizens, but live in Spain and work in Gibraltar. Here it is important to emphasize one point: the compromise on Gibraltar was agreed in the form of a protocol, which should be added to the common deal on the withdrawal between Britain and the European Union. The same protocols will be issued in respect of Northern Ireland, as well as the British military base in Cyprus.

    This aspect is extremely important in the context of today's requirements of the Spaniards. The fact is that the agreement approved by the British ministers assumes that negotiations on further relations between Britain and the EU (which are not covered by the points of the deal) will continue after March 29, 2019, that is, after the official withdrawal of the country from the European Union. Madrid, in turn, requires that a separate clause be written in the agreement that would oblige London to negotiate with Spain on sovereignty over Gibraltar.

    According to rumors, the Spaniards suspect the British of "diplomatic tricks" -after all, the above 184th article of the agreement does not clearly oblige London to return to this issue, and its provisions can be interpreted in different ways. The Spaniards fear (and I think it is justified) that once the draft deal becomes an official document, the Gibraltar issue will be shelved again. That is why Madrid is actively insisting that this issue be included as a separate paragraph in the draft agreement. Moreover, Spain threatened to vote against the draft if its demands were not met.

    The British, in turn, reasonably appeal to the fact that, first of all, the draft deal was agreed upon by the negotiators, and the negotiating group includes representatives of the EU, which are responsible for defending the interests of the eurozone countries (including Spain). Secondly, this project has already been agreed upon by the British ministers – any amendments to the document will entail a "domino effect", because there are a lot of claims to this agreement. Third, London reminded Madrid of the results of the October meeting at the EU summit, where the parties agreed to formalize their relations in a separate protocol, which will be an integral part of the overall deal.

    In other words, the British flatly refused to make changes to the "body" of the agreement itself, while they can sign other documents regulating the relations of countries with respect to Gibraltar. It is worth noting that Angela Merkel and some other representatives of European countries recently said that the key EU summit on Brexit, which is scheduled for November 25, will not take place unless an agreement is reached on the remaining part of the agreement. It is this fact that brought down the pound to the 27th figure yesterday - uncertainty again prevailed over optimism.

    However, according to the Spanish press, this morning London and Madrid signed four memorandums of understanding, as well as a tax treaty. If today Spain will remove its demands (or rather,an ultimatum) about the change in the text of the draft deal, then the British currency will play its position in the context of corrective growth. But a steady and large-scale growth of the GBP/USD is still not expected. At least until November 25, that is, until next Sunday, the pound will be under background pressure in anticipation of the next stage of the "divorce process".

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex


    • GBP / USD Forecast for November 26, 2018

      GBP / USD

      The trading volume on the British pound on Friday was the smallest in the last 3 months. Under the general pressure of the dollar (USDH 0.46%) and in anticipation of the decision of the EU emergency meeting on Brexit, the pound lost 64 points.

      On Sunday, the EU countries unanimously adopted the Brexit plan. In England, the opposition,in particular the Labor Party, spoke out against voting on this draft in Parliament and suggested either changing the text of the treaty or holding a second Brexit referendum. On the other hand, EU representatives replied that there would be no second agreement on the UK leaving the EU, that is, under the most extreme scenario, England would leave the EU without a deal. It seems to us that the treaty will still be ratified until December 25 as required. But we do not expect significant growth of the pound in this case, since in fact, the United Kingdom will still acquire small restrictions. Probably, there will be no growth at all - as the working out of the exchange phenomenon of selling on the facts.

      In the current situation, we are waiting for the price to overcome the support of the price channel line on the daily timeframe at about 1.2777. After that, we are waiting for the further decline of the pound to the underlying line in the 1.2560 area.

      Analysis are provided by InstaForex


      • Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 27 - 2018

        We are still looking for a firm break above minor resistance at 1.6767 for a continuation higher to at least 1.6915 and likely even closer to resistance near 1.7023,

        Short-term support is seen 1.6698, which ideally will protect the downside for the expected break above 1.6767, but it will take an unexpected break below support at 1.6638 to cause concern and indicate that wave iv/ could have completed prematurely.

        R3: 1.6879
        R2: 1.6836
        R1: 1.6832
        Pivot: 1.6767
        S1: 1.16731
        S2: 1.6706
        S3: 1.6642

        Trading recommendation:
        We are long EUR from 1.6706 with our stop placed at 1.6555. We will raise our stop to break-even upon a break above 1.6767.

        Analysis are provided by InstaForex


        • GBP / USD. Pound does not believe in "soft" Brexit

          After the turbulent events of the past week, the financial world froze in anticipation. In early December, it will become clear whether the market will return to a state of relative stability or global uncertainty will continue further, defining the corresponding prospects for 2019. Given such an eventual fork, any prediction of currency strategists somehow comes down either to Brexit or to US-China trade relations. In the case of the pound-dollar pair, both topics are relevant - especially now, on the eve of the G20 summit and the key vote in the British parliament.

          Brexit has an unconditional priority for the pound - all other fundamental factors are of secondary importance. These may affect the dynamics of the currency only if an information vacuum is temporarily created around the "main" theme. Recently, there are practically no such periods: the prospects for the most important voting are spoken daily, the most diverse speakers - from political scientists to the leaders of British political parties.

          The disposition at the moment is as follows : there are 650 deputies in the British parliament. Meanwhile, the prime minister needs 320 votes in favor in order for the deal to pass through the millstones of the House of Commons. The complexity of the situation lies in the fact that, after the extraordinary re-election, the conservatives have lost the majority - now they are only left with 316 votes. In this regard, they entered into a coalition alliance with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), 10 deputies of which has provided control over parliament to conservatives. Theoretically, Theresa May has the necessary number of votes. However, in practice, the situation is completely different. Unionists have already managed to declare that they will not vote for the draft deal: a similar statement was made by the representatives of the Labor party and the Scottish National Party.

          True, in each case that they did not manage to gain the necessary number ( 48) of supporters - but from this, it can be concluded that the backbone of the inner-party opposition is about three dozen deputies. Overwhelmingly, they are supporters of a more "rigid" Brexit. In their opinion, Theresa May gave in to the pressure of Brussels and allowed too many concessions to the Europeans. And although the number of opponents among conservatives can vary, the prime minister does not have to rely on the monolithic support of party members.

          This means that Theresa May needs to do the almost impossible: to win over the representatives of the Labor Party to her side. It is worth noting that among the Laborites, there are also supporters of Brexit, however, it is in their interpretation, which provides for maximum cooperation with the European Union. Even when the possibility of early elections was discussed in London, Labor declared that Brexit would take place anyway if he won, but under different conditions.

          According to experts, Theresa May will seek support from those Labor Party deputies who, on the one hand, are in favor of the country's withdrawal from the EU, and on the other hand, are satisfied with the formula for further cooperation with Brussels. Also, the prime minister will continue to put pressure on his party members, emphasizing the lack of an alternative to the achieved deal. Rather, the only alternative in this case is the chaotic Brexit, the negative consequences of which have been voiced more than once.

          In this way, The British Prime Minister faces a very difficult political task, which may be unsolvable for her. At least, many analysts doubt that she will be able to consolidate the deputies - especially from the two opposing camps. Other experts are confident that the fear of the disordered Brexit will force many parliamentarians to support the deal, despite the flaws that have been declared. Uncertain prospects put a lot of pressure on the pound. Today, a pair of GBP/USD has finally consolidated in the 27th figure, testing a half-week minimum. And the closer the "hour of the X", the stronger the volatility will be for the pair, since the degree of intensity will only increase. In particular, a televised debate between Theresa May and Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn can take place next week. The premier has already confirmed Theresa May's participation in this event. If the head of the government looks unconvincing, then the British currency will again surrender its position, updating all the new price prima.

          One must not forget about the quoted currency GBP / USD - dollar. On the eve of the G20 summit, Trump made a rather unfriendly statement about the introduction of new tariffs on Chinese imports - from January 1 of next year. Such rhetoric only increased the importance of the G20 summit, which will begin this Friday. Against the background of increased uncertainty, the American currency is again increasing its position: the dollar index is in the area of 97 points. In other words, the uncertainty of the British currency and the restoration of the greenback determine the southern trend for the pair. The nearest support level is far below the current levels at around 1.2670. This is the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart.

          Analysis are provided by InstaForex


          • Forecast for USD / JPY on November 29, 2018

            Yesterday, the Japanese yen was able to withstand the onslaught of counterdollar currencies at the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, but this resistance weakened today in the Asian session - the yen's decline is 32 points. Of course, the yen has a traditional patron - the stock market. Yesterday, the S & P500 added 2.3%. Today, the Nikkei225 is growing by 0.61%. It seems that the stock market rally has already begun. According to the data released today, retail sales in Japan added 3.5% y / y in October against the forecast of 2.7% y / y. Tomorrow, a whole block of positive changes are expected: industrial production growth in October is 1.3%, the base CPI of the capital Tokyo in November from 1.0% y / y to 1.1% y / y. Consumer confidence index is expected to be 43.3 against 43.0 earlier, the number of new housing bookmarks is from -1.5% y / y to 0.4% g / g.

            At the moment, the price is close to the Krusenstern indicator lines and the balance on H4, but as part of the fluctuation, it is possible to reduce to support for the daily scale in the area of 113.00. From the level, we are waiting for the price reversal up to the resistance of the trend line of the price channel (115.15).

            Analysis are provided by InstaForex


            • Bitcoin analysis for December 03, 2018

              Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results

              Trading recommendations:

              According to the H1 time - frame, I found the upward breakout of the 6-hour balance, which is sign that buyers are in control today. I also found the rejection from the demand zone (blue shape), which is another sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $4.117 (Fibonacci expansion 61.8%) and at the price of $4.225 (swing high).

              $4.000 – Intraday resistance
              $3.870– Intraday support
              $4.117– Objective target 1
              $4.225 – Objective target 2

              With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

              Analysis are provided by InstaForex


              • Experts Goldman predicts oil prices above $ 65 if OPEC cuts production

                Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results

                Financial analysts at Goldman Sachs believe that the price of Brent crude oil may exceed $ 65 per barrel if the OPEC member countries agree to reduce production this week.

                Experts agree that the wording of the new OPEC agreement will be restrained, for example, the goal could be to stabilize the volume of commercial stocks.

                According to their estimates, at the beginning of next year, the price of Brent crude oil may exceed $ 70 per barrel amid a reduction in exports and the cessation of growth in reserves that exceed seasonal rates. This price level will allow for normalization of reserves, while not sufficient for an excessive increase in drilling activity in the United States.

                If oil quotes reach $ 62-63 per barrel, this may stimulate further growth to $ 70 per barrel. However, if OPEC does not reach an agreement on reducing production at the next meeting on December 6-7, this will lead to the continuation of a downward rally.

                Analysis are provided by InstaForex


                • Forecast for GBP/USD for December 5, 2018

                  The correction on the British pound yesterday took place even higher than the area we expected, the limiter was the balance line of the daily timeframe. On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator formed a long corridor, pushing off from its upper limit. The reason for the increased dynamics was the decision of the British Parliament to take over the authority of further Brexit process in case of failure of the May draft vote on the 11th. This turn of events has threatened the prime minister's resignation. Given that the EU may not want to process the finished project, which has been repeatedly stated, the country can leave the EU without a deal at all.

                  So, the short-term technical growth took place, the price strengthened on the daily and H4 in the downtrend, we are waiting for the price to support the price channel line in the area of 1.2550.
                  *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


                  • GBP/USD. Supporters of "soft" Brexit have an unexpected ally

                    Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results

                    The British currency was under strong pressure yesterday, following the controversial fundamental background. The unexpected cohesion of the British deputies against Theresa May has caused alarm to traders, after all, after only 6 days, parliamentarians must decide the fate of the Brexit deal. On the horizon, the prospects for Britain's chaotic exit from the EU again loomed, after which the pound fell to 18-month lows.

                    But the fundamental picture of the GBP/USD pair is very changeable: today the sterling is showing a very aggressive growth, restoring lost positions. A rich news flow keeps traders in good shape, and the closer December 11, the more acute the market reaction to any rumors related to the prospect of Brexit.

                    However, today the growth of the pound is not due to rumors. The fact is that the leader of the Conservatives in the House of Commons, Andrea Leadsom, said in an interview that the only alternative to the deal is "hard" Brexit, that is, the chaotic exit of the country from the EU. According to her, this scenario is basic and there are no other scenarios. On the one hand, this statement should again alert traders – because just yesterday 311 members of Parliament voted to investigate the issue of disrespect of the Cabinet of Ministers to the legislature. That is, the deputies have unambiguously showed that Theresa May has no unequivocal support of the parliamentary majority and all decisions are made situationally.

                    On the other hand, Leadsom's statement supported the British currency: the fact that the position of the parliamentary leader puts the deputies before a simple but difficult choice: either they vote for a "bad deal", or they support a "hard" Brexit. No "plan Bs", re-referendum or other half-hearted scenarios. Only forward or backward, only "black or white", without any shades. It should be noted that Theresa May is now playing this card: in almost every speech she paints a catastrophic chaotic Brexit, warning deputies that they take responsibility for the implementation of such a scenario. That is why Labour has been actively promoting the idea of a second referendum or an alternative agreement with Brussels – to convince Parliament that their choice is not limited to "hard" or "soft" Brexit.

                    In other words, Theresa May's opponents are trying to minimize the deputies' concerns about the consequences of a failed vote for the Brexit project. The task of Theresa May's supporters is the opposite - to convince them that if they do not support the proposed agreement, they will plunge the country into a state of economic and political chaos.

                    That is why today's statement by Andrea Leadsom is so important – in fact, she sided with Theresa May – at least voiced the message, which is politically beneficial to the prime minister. And here it is worth noting that Leadsom has a strong enough influence among conservatives. She was one of the contenders for the premiere position after David Cameron left the post. Moreover, in 2016, she even went to the last round of elections of the leader of the Conservative Party, but lost to the current prime minister – 199 deputies of the Conservative Party voted for May's candidacy, 84 for Leadsom. Later, she withdrew her candidacy, thereby opening the way for Theresa May to the prime minister's office.

                    In other words, the supporters of the "soft" Brexit received a rather important ally, although the support is very indirect. But the bulls of the GBP/USD, apparently, use any reason of a positive nature to return the price in the direction of corrective growth. Despite the strong volatility and the likely temptation of traders to "catch the price wave", trading the pound is still extremely risky. The market reacts too violently even to minor signals regarding the prospects of Brexit, so such price movements are unreliable. In a few hours, the fundamental picture may change dramatically - if rumors return to the market that the prime minister does not have sufficient support among the deputies.

                    Unfortunately, now we can only analyze the causes of this or that surge in volatility after the fact, while it is almost impossible to predict price fluctuations for the GBP/USD pair (as well as for other cross-pairs involving the pound).

                    From a technical point of view, only support levels are relevant. In this case, the strongest support level is 1.2640 - the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart. Slightly higher is the price low of the year - 1.2660, which also acts as support - for example, yesterday, with a pulsed southern movement, the pair did not refresh this low, stopping at 1.2670. But here it is worth warning that with strong volatility, the above levels of support will not be able to resist the onslaught of bears, especially in anticipation of a key vote in the British parliament.

                    Analysis are provided by InstaForex


                    • EUR/USD: in search of a neutral rate and in anticipation of the Nonfarm report

                      Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results

                      The dollar index today made an unsuccessful attempt to return to the area of 97 points: at the beginning of the US session, the greenback had once again began to lose positions throughout the market.

                      Dollar bulls found themselves in a difficult and rather contradictory situation: on the one hand, the Federal Reserve declares a gradual tightening of monetary policy, on the other hand, representatives of the regulator increasingly say that the rate is approaching its neutral level, when its size does not hold back the development of the economy, but does not "overheat" it. That is why traders are now so sensitive to the slowdown in the key macroeconomic indicators of the United States – since this fact can reduce the determination of the members of the regulator about the prospects of monetary policy next year.

                      Here it is necessary to make a reservation at once: market participants still lay in the current prices a high probability of a rate hike in December. Although in recent years, traders have somewhat doubted this step: if a month ago, this probability was about 80%, today it is 67%. In my opinion, these are understated figures – the Federal Reserve will not resort to "shock therapy", refusing to raise the rate for the fourth time this year. Fed members are too transparent and persistent in making it clear that they are ready to show appropriate determination at the December meeting. Therefore, the main intrigue concerns the prospects for next year and not this year.

                      The dollar bulls have a reason for concern – several members of the Fed have recently changed their rhetoric, significantly softening their positions. For example, Jerome Powell in early October clearly stated that the rate is still "too far from neutral". However, last week his position changed - he said that the rate is "slightly below" the level that can be considered neutral. Vice-Chairman of the Fed Richard Clarid also raised this issue: in his opinion, the rate is at the lower limit of the range where the notorious neutral level is located.

                      The minutes of the Fed's November meeting also show that the members of the regulator are gradually reducing their hawkish attitude. Thus, if at previous meetings they allowed the probability of exceeding the neutral level, this time the emphasis was placed differently. The Fed was again concerned about the slowdown in the world economy, tighter credit conditions, the decline in the housing market and other negative factors.

                      In other words, the general tone of rhetoric has become more cautious, and this fact has alerted traders, especially against the background of subsequent comments by Powell and Clarida. According to some experts, the Fed smoothly prepares the markets for the fact that the regulator will not raise the interest rate on a "regular basis": when a certain level is reached, the Fed will take a wait-and-see position, and all subsequent decisions will be taken situationally. And here the main intrigue is when exactly the regulator will pause the process of regular rate hikes, because the above mentioned range is quite wide – from 2.5% to 3.5%.

                      Although the issue is debatable, the fact that it is discussed puts indirect pressure on the markets. In particular, the yield of 10-year treasuries returned to three percent and continues to decline (at the moment – 2,838%). The growth of the dollar index also slowed - over the past month, the indicator tried to gain a foothold three times in the area of 97 points.

                      Thus, the dollar does not have sufficient grounds to make a price breakthrough, but it is also in no hurry to give up its positions. As I said above, in the light of such uncertainty, traders are more sensitive to the slowdown in macroeconomic indicators: in particular, the level of labor cost, which is an indirect indicator of inflation growth, is out in the red zone. Also disappointed by the ADP report, which came out in anticipation of tomorrow's Nonfarm. Although these indicators are of a secondary nature (compared to tomorrow's release), they were able to provoke additional pressure on the yield of treasuries and, accordingly, on the dollar.

                      This fact determines the current dynamics of the corrective growth of the EUR/USD pair. The single currency does not have its own arguments for growth – indirect support provides a likely compromise between Rome and Brussels. But Italy will present the updated budget next week, so the intrigue of this event is still there,

                      Thus, the further correctional growth of the pair depends on tomorrow's Nonfarm. If they come out in the "red zone" (especially in terms of wage growth), the pressure on the US currency will increase and, accordingly, the growth of EUR/USD will continue.

                      From a technical point of view, the situation has not changed since yesterday. The price on the daily chart is still on the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which indicates the absence of a bright trend movement. If the pair is fixed below 1.1340, then, firstly, the price will be between the middle and lower lines of the above indicator, and secondly – the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator will form a bearish "Parade of lines" signal . The combination of these signals will open the way for the pair to a strong support level of 1.1250 (the lower Bollinger Bands line on the daily chart). If tomorrow's Nonfarm will disappoint, then the pair may again test the 14th figure.

                      Analysis are provided by InstaForex


                      • Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY for December 11, 2018

                        Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results

                        In Asia, Japan will release the Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y, 30-y Bond Auction, M2 Money Stock y/y, and BSI Manufacturing Index. The US will also publish some economic data such as Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and NFIB Small Business Index. So there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

                        TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
                        Resistance. 3: 113.66.
                        Resistance. 2: 113.44.
                        Resistance. 1: 113.22.
                        Support. 1: 112.94.
                        Support. 2: 112.72.
                        Support. 3: 112.50.

                        Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors .The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

                        Analysis are provided by InstaForex


                        • Theresa May's European voyage: a difficult evening for the pound

                          Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results

                          So, the epic with Brexit continues: today Theresa May arrived in Brussels, where two important meetings will be held in the evening - first, she will discuss the prospects of the "divorce process" with the President of the European Council Donald Tusk, and then – with the head of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker. According to some information, May will also meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

                          The British Prime Minister is trying to find a way out of the current impasse: the "maximum" task at the moment is to agree with Europeans on the final date of the back-stop, while receiving the corresponding guarantees of a legal nature. Let me remind you that the main stumbling block in the British Parliament was precisely the Irish border discussion. According to the draft agreement, the special customs status of Northern Ireland does not have a time limit, which means it can become permanent. Moreover, according to the provisions of the transaction, London will not be able to waive this status unilaterally. Such vague prospects were perceived in hostility by the laborists, unionists, and the "hawkish wing" of conservatives.

                          According to Theresa May, the majority of deputies support the key points of the deal, but the uncertainty with backstop forces them to vote against the proposed agreement. In turn, Labour states that the problem lies not only in backstop but also in many other aspects. However, conservatives and unionists voice more restrained comments. Thus, the chances of a "soft" Brexit are still there – and this explains the current dynamics of the pound, which paired with the dollar, consolidated at the bottom of the 26th figure.

                          By and large, now the "ball" is on the side of Europe. If Brussels makes concessions and fixes the final date of the backstop, many British MPs may reconsider their decision in favor of the proposed deal. However, the other scale – the disastrous consequences of "hard" Brexit, which have already been said about.

                          However, Europe is not in a hurry to meet. At least, the head of the European Council Donald Tusk today said that Brussels will not re-discuss the agreement reached, and even more so will not revise the issue of the Irish border. Nevertheless, the head of the EC said that the European side is ready to think about how to "facilitate the process of ratification by the British side." What exactly Donald Tusk had in mind is unknown, so his words can be interpreted in a fairly broad sense. The head of the European Commission Juncker, in turn, also rejected the hypothetical revision of the transaction. However, he admitted the possibility of a certain compromise: speaking at the session of the European Parliament, Juncker said that in the current situation, certain clarifications are permissible – but without revision of the text of the Treaty.

                          In other words, on the one hand, Brussels categorically refuses to revise the agreement, but on the other hand, it makes it clear that it is ready to make certain concessions in the context of clarifying and interpreting the agreements reached.

                          Thus, traders of the pound/dollar pair once again find themselves in agonizing wait: if today the parties do not sound positive signals, the price will collapse once again to an annual low, to the level of 1,2505. If the evening meetings lead to any result (even if of a preliminary nature), the bulls of the pair will seize the initiative and the price will rapidly go up.

                          The fact is that the GBP/USD pair has a strong unrealized potential for large-scale corrective growth, especially after today's release of data on the UK labor market. The unemployment rate remained unchanged, a record low of 4.1%, but the average earnings jumped by 3.3%, while experts expected a more modest growth – up to three percent. But the increase in salaries in nominal terms for three months was the strongest in the last ten years. The growth of applications for unemployment benefits was a bit disappointing, but the indicator of earnings plays a more important role in this context. Weak wage growth rates for a long time worried the members of the British regulator – in their opinion, this indicator largely determines the stability of inflation growth in the country. But the figures published today show that Average Earnings Index has been growing for the fourth month in a row, exceeding the forecast values.

                          All this allows the Bank of England to toughen its rhetoric and take a more "hawkish" stance at the next meeting, taking into account the growth of the consumer price index. If not for one "but" - Brexit. If London and Brussels are unable to agree on legal guarantees for the completion of the backstop, the probability of a chaotic Brexit will increase again, and the British Central Bank, in turn, will take a wait-and-see position for a long time - and under certain conditions, will reduce the rate. Therefore, the results of the next negotiations can not be overestimated: not only the fate of the deal depends on them, but also the prospects of monetary policy in Britain.

                          Analysis are provided by InstaForex


                          • Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY for December 13, 2018

                            Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results

                            In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data today, but the US will publish some economic data such as 30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, and Import Prices m/m. So there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

                            TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
                            Resistance. 3: 114.03.
                            Resistance. 2: 113.81.
                            Resistance. 1: 113.63.
                            Support. 1: 113.30.
                            Support. 2: 113.08.
                            Support. 3: 112.86.

                            Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

                            Analysis are provided by InstaForex


                            • Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD for December 17, 2018

                              Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results

                              When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Empire State Manufacturing Index, Trade Balance, Final Core CPI y/y, Final CPI y/y, and Italian Trade Balance. The US will also release the economic data such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, NAHB Housing Market Index, and Empire State Manufacturing Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move in a low to a medium volatility during this day.

                              TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
                              BUY Level: 1.1362.
                              Strong Resistance: 1.1355.
                              Original Resistance: 1.1344.
                              Inner Sell Area: 1.1333.
                              Target Inner Area: 1.1306.
                              Inner Buy Area: 1.1279.
                              Original Support: 1.1268.
                              Strong Support: 1.1257.
                              Breakout SELL Level: 1.1250.

                              Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

                              Analysis are provided by InstaForex


                              • EUR/USD: Weak PMI, the "Yellow Jackets" and the expectation of the Fed

                                Company does not offer investment advice and the analysis performed does not guarantee results

                                After Friday's rise to one and a half year highs, the dollar index today slowed down and returned to 96 points. The strengthening of the US currency was due to weak data from China and strong data from the US. However, the dollar rally did not continue due to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, the results of which will be known the day after tomorrow.

                                But on Friday, the dollar bulls were inspired by US data on the growth of retail sales. First, the October data were revised upwards - from 0.8% to 1.1%. Second, in November, the indicator came out better than expected, although it de facto fell to 0.3%. However, following the release of data on inflation growth, Friday's figures provided strong support to the dollar against the backdrop of growth in consumer activity and lending. After all, in addition to the indicator of retail sales, last week data on the growth of industrial production in the United States were published. This indicator jumped by 0.6% in November, being stronger than the forecast (0.3%).

                                In other words, the US data renewed confidence that the Federal Reserve on Wednesday will not only raise the rate, but will also take a "hawkish" position on the future prospects of monetary policy. Although this issue is quite controversial (due to recent talk about the search for a neutral rate), the fundamental picture for the dollar looks undoubtedly better than the euro.

                                The single currency came under pressure of not only macroeconomic but also political factors. French PMI indices in the services and manufacturing sector fell under the key 50 mark - for the first time this year. German indicators also came out in the "red zone", showing a slowdown. Composite PMI index in the eurozone sharply fell in December to 51.3 - although last month was at 52.7 points. Weak PMI figures are fully consistent with the slowdown in economic growth in the eurozone, which was recorded in the third quarter of this year – let me remind you that GDP growth in the eurozone slowed to four-year lows.

                                On top of that, European inflation also brought it down - the consumer price index fell to two percent (with a forecast of 2.1% from the previous value of 2.2%), and core inflation excluding volatile energy and food prices returned to 1%, although experts were confident that the indicator will remain at the October level, that is, at around 1.1%. Against the background of these results, Mario Draghi's position at the last meeting of the ECB looked even optimistic – at least the head of the central bank did not rule out the tightening of monetary policy within the next year.

                                However, it is too early to talk about it. The bulls of EUR/USD are still satisfied with the fact that the European Central Bank completed QE on time, while the next steps of the ECB look too vague. Uncertainty puts pressure on the single currency, as well as the political situation in many European countries – primarily in France. The ongoing protests of the so-called "Yellow Jackets" unnerve the markets, especially against the backdrop of the Italian budget crisis. On Saturday, Paris hosted another (fifth) round of protests: about 70,000 people took to the streets of the city. And although it is almost two times less than in the past, it is too early to talk about the intensity of protest sentiments: most likely, bad weather conditions (almost zero air temperature + heavy rain) are to blame for everything.

                                Local demands for lower fuel prices have grown into political manifestos - now protesters demand to move to direct democracy through referendums on key issues of the country's life. In other words, the protest movement in France is taking a protracted form with rather unpredictable consequences. On the one hand, many experts say that the protest in its current form is not supported by all the French (much less than during the first wave of rallies). On the other hand, if Macron is forced to resign, then early elections will be held in the country, and the risk of a political crisis will increase in many ways.

                                Thus, today's corrective growth of the euro-dollar pair is primarily due to the hypothetical problems of the US currency. First, on the eve of the Fed meeting, traders were still anxious over the central bank's further actions. Secondly, there was a risk of a shutdown again in the United States. The US government may stop work on December 22 due to disagreements over the construction of the wall on the border with Mexico. According to the American press, the White House has already begun to conduct advance preparations for the implementation of this scenario.

                                All this suggests that the EUR/USD pair is unlikely to demonstrate strong volatility until Wednesday – only if Italy or Brexit does not present any surprises in the news plan. From a technical point of view, the pair remains within the downward movement until the price fixes above 1.1360 (the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, which coincides with the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines). In this case, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator will form a "Golden cross" signal, which will determine further growth to the level of 1.1390 (the lower limit of the Kumo cloud). The nearest target of the downward movement is 1.1280 - the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the same timeframe.

                                Analysis are provided by InstaForex



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