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  • Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 31, 2018

    When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Unemployment Rate, Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Prelim Flash GDP q/q, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, German Unemployment Change, Spanish Flash GDP q/q, French Prelim CPI m/m, and German Retail Sales m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too such as CB Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Employment Cost Index q/q, and Core PCE Price Index m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1765.
    Strong Resistance:1.1758.
    Original Resistance: 1.1757.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1736.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1708. Inner
    Buy Area: 1.1680.
    Original Support: 1.1669.
    Strong Support: 1.1658.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1651.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

    Comment


    • Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 1, 2018

      EUR/NZD tried to break above short-term important resistance at 1.7205 but failed. We think it is just a matter of time before a new attempt to break above this resistance is seen. A firm break above resistance at 1.7205, will confirm that red wave ii has completed and that red wave iii towards 1.7510 and above is developing.

      Short-term, support remains seen at 1.7134 and 1.7116. The later should continue to protect the downside for the expected break above 1.7205. An unexpected break below 1.7116, will indicate that black wave ii/ still is in motion for a spike lower to 1.7066 before turning higher in black wave iii/.

      R3: 1.7268
      R2: 1.7207
      R1: 1.7185
      Pivot: 1.7165
      S1: 1.7137
      S2: 1.7116
      S3: 1.7106

      Trading recommendation:
      We are long EUR from 1.7226 with our stop placed at 1.7110. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.7205 and use the same stop at 1.7110.

      Analysis are provided by InstaForex

      Comment


      • Gold bets on August

        July was the fourth consecutive month of gold closing in the red zone. The precious metal has not faced such a protracted peak since 2013. The US economy and the aggressive monetary tightening of the Fed, which gained under the influence of the fiscal stimulus, dealt a serious blow to the positions of the bulls in the XAU/USD. The futures market is almost 70% confident that the Federal reserve will raise rates twice before the end of the year amid a drop in unemployment to 4%, inflation to the target and an impressive +4.1% q/q of GDP for the second quarter.

        Quarterly dynamics of gold

        While Japanese investors kept the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds below the psychologically important 3% mark, and the growth of US stock indices did not allow precious metals to play a role in escalating trade conflicts, a strong dollar left it no chance. Even the information from competent Reuters sources about Donald Trump's willingness to announce the expansion of import duties for China by $200 billion was perceived as a reason for selling the XAU/USD in the near future. The dollar, for investors, seems to be a more reliable safe-haven asset than gold.

        What can the precious metal answer? First, the seasonal factor can play on its side. August is the second best month for gold after January. By the end of the last month of summer 2017, it has strengthened by more than 4%, and in 2016-2017, ETF reserves added about 4%. Second, speculative net longs have fallen to a record low since the date of the accounting in 2006. They are lower than at the end of 2015, when the Fed started the process of monetary policy normalization. Finally, third, the market has serious doubts about the ability of the US economy to maintain the pace taken in the second quarter. Let Donald Trump in this no doubt, but the logic says the opposite. The gradual fading of the effect of tax reform, tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, trade wars and the dollar's revaluation in April-July increase the risks of a slowdown in GDP in the third-fourth quarters.

        Another thing is that the main competitor of the dollar in the face of the single European currency is not shining yet. In April-June, the divergence in economic growth of the US and the eurozone turned out to be the broadest one since 2014. This does not allow us to count on the ECB's departure from ultra-soft monetary policy and creates serious obstacles for the EUR/USD to move upwards.

        In the short term, gold is likely to show increased sensitivity to the results of the FOMC meeting and the release of data on the US labor market. The Fed's "dovish rhetoric and sluggish wage growth will push futures prices in the direction of $1,250 per ounce. On the contrary, if the central bank prefers the "hawkish" hunt, and the statistics on wages will please the eye, the precious metal risks to continue the peak in the direction of $1200.

        Technically, gold is trying to push off the convergence zone of $1207-1222 (targets for 200% and 88.6% by the AB=CD and "Shark" patterns). If the bulls manage to keep the quotes above the important support, the risks of a rollback to $1,243 and $1,272 will increase.

        Gold, daily chart


        Analysis are provided by InstaForex

        Comment


        • Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Aug 03, 2018



          When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Retail Sales m/m, Italian Retail Sales m/m, Italian Industrial Production m/m, Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, Spanish Services PMI, and French Gov Budget Balance. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium to high volatility during this day.

          TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

          Breakout BUY Level: 1.1642.

          Strong Resistance:1.1635.

          Original Resistance: 1.1624.

          Inner Sell Area: 1.1613.

          Target Inner Area: 1.1586.

          Inner Buy Area: 1.1559.

          Original Support: 1.1548.

          Strong Support: 1.1537.

          Breakout SELL Level: 1.1530.

          Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

          *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

          Comment


          • Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 6, 2018

            EUR/JPY has moved just below the lower boundary at 128.66 (the low has been seen at 158.49). This does fulfill all requirements for our slightly preferred scenario, meaning that a low should be in place for wave ii/ and a new impulsive rally in wave iii/ should be ready to develop. Wave iii/ will ideally make it to 135.74 and possibly even higher.

            That said, we need to remember that prices need to prove themselves for a strong rally above 129.62. The possible alternate scenario still remains possible. Under this count, wave ii still is developing as an expanded flat correction. If this count is correct, then we should expect resistance near 129.62 will cap the upside for a final decline towards 126.01 to complete wave ii before wave iii will be ready to take over.

            R3: 129.62
            R2: 129.18
            R1: 129.00
            Pivot: 128.77
            S1: 128.50
            S2: 128.11
            S3: 127.69

            Trading recommendation:
            Our stop at 128.50 was hit for a 45 pips loss. We will re-buy EUR here at 128.72 and place our stop at 128.45.

            Analysis are provided by InstaForex

            Comment


            • Trump's trade policy continues to work

              The euro continued to decline against the US dollar in the morning of Monday, August 6, amid the lack of important fundamental statistics, as well as expectations of further interest rate hikes in the United States.

              Data on the sharp decline in orders in Germany put pressure on risky assets.

              According to a report by the German Ministry of Economy, production orders in Germany declined sharply in June this year due to falling demand from countries outside the eurozone. This suggests that the current tensions in trade relations are already affecting the indicators, which will further exacerbate tensions between the US and the EU.

              As indicated in the report, orders in the manufacturing sector in Germany in June 2018 fell by 4.0% compared to May, while economists had forecast a decline in orders by 0.5%. The ministry confirmed the fact that the uncertainty of the prospects of trade policy played a key role.

              External orders in the German manufacturing sector in June fell by 4.7% compared to May, while domestic production orders decreased 2.8% compared to the previous month.

              As I noted above, a particular decrease in orders was observed from countries that are not members of the eurozone. Here the figure fell by 5.9%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, orders in the German manufacturing sector decreased by 0.8%.

              As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, then, most likely, the pressure on the euro will continue. The breakthrough of support of 1.1530 will lead to new large sales in risky assets, with an exit to the lows of the month in the area of 1.1480 and 1.1440. The only hope of buyers in the short term is a return to the resistance of 1.1565, which will lead to an upward correction in the area of 1.16 and 1.1630.

              The British pound continued to decline, ignoring the report on the volume of consumer lending in the UK, which in June this year has not changed compared to may. This shows that consumer spending will continue to grow in the future.

              According to the Bank of England, in June 2018, net consumer lending to consumers in June amounted to 5.4 billion pounds against 5.3 billion pounds in May. Credit cards in June amounted to 1.6 billion pounds.

              As for mortgage loans, the number was at the level of 65,619. As for the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair, the recovery prospects are also quite far. Brexit and uncertainty with a further increase in interest rates in the UK continue to weigh on the pound.

              The current main goal of the sellers of the pound is the lows of 1.2890 and 1.2815. If we talk about the prospects for an upward correction, then, apparently, it will be limited in the area of resistances 1.2960 and 1.3000.

              Analysis are provided by InstaForex

              Comment


              • Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 8, 2018

                EUR/NZD is once again testing important resistance at 1.7224, but we need a clear break above here to confirm that the next impulsive rally towards 1.7510 is in motion. As long as resistance at 1.7224 is able to cap the upside as long does the possibility for a final drop into the 1.7033 - 1.7066 area exist, before completing wave ii/.

                Longer-term, we remain bullish EUR/NZD for a rally towards 1.8310 and ultimately higher towards 1.98 - 1.99 area.

                R3: 1.7305
                R2: 1.7251
                R1: 1.7224
                Pivot: 1.7187
                S1: 1.7150
                S2: 1.7115
                S2: 1.7094

                Trading recommendation:
                We are long EUR from 1.7226 with our stop placed at 1.7110.

                Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                Comment


                • Is the black band for gold over?

                  The leader of the precious metals sector, who marked its worst start in the last decade, managed to take a breather due to the strengthening of the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen against the US dollar. The strong US currency has become the main culprit of the XAU/USD pair slumping by 7% since the beginning of the year. According to the World Gold Council report, global demand fell to 1959 tons in January-June, which is the lowest value since 2009. During the same period in 2017 it was about 2086 tons. And while interest in jewelry and the use of metal in the industry has been stable, the outflow of capital from the ETF became the main driver of falling prices.

                  According to WGC research, the reserves of specialized exchange-traded funds increased by a modest 60.9 tons in the first half of 2018. In January-June 2017, the process was significantly faster (+160.9 tons). The dog is buried in the flight of American investors from the market. Against the background of the dispersal of US GDP to 4.1% q/q, they preferred to buy securities rather than revenue-generating precious metals. The story of the collapse of Chinese stock indices under the influence of the slowdown of the Chinese economy and trade wars did not help either. If at the beginning of 2016 gold grew in response to the fall of Shanghai Composite, then this year assets prefer to go one way.

                  Dynamics of gold and the Shanghai Composite

                  If we focus on the dynamics of capital outflow from the ETF, we can assume that the XAU/USD will continue the downward campaign. Thus, according to Commerzbank's estimates, after the loss of stock of specialized exchange-traded funds of 29 tons in July, from the beginning of August they sank by another 16 tons. The bank expects that in the near future, under the influence of aggressive monetary tightening of the Fed, gold will test the psychologically important mark of $1200 per ounce. Supporters and speculators, who as of July 31 accumulated a record from 2006 net position on the analyzed asset in the futures market 27 156 contracts, equivalent to 2.7 million ounces.

                  Standard Bank, on the contrary, believes that the black band for the precious metal has remained in the past. The factor of four increases in the federal funds rate in 2018 is practically taken into account in the quotes of the USD index (the futures market gives about 70% of the probability of such an outcome), investors are unlikely to be surprised by this. But the slower normalization of monetary policy of the Fed or the loss of US GDP by the pair can lead to an increase in XAU/USD quotes to $1,260 per ounce in the third quarter. Before the end of the year, gold can test the level of $1300.

                  The pluralism of opinions allows the "bulls" of the precious metal to take a breath and contributes to its consolidation in the range of $1205-1235 per ounce. Investors will closely monitor the release of data on US inflation for July. Overclocking the CPU to 3% and above will increase the chances of four Fed rate increases and will contribute to the strengthening of the dollar.

                  Technically, gold reaching the convergence zone of $1185-1220 per ounce (targets for 88.6% and 113% on the "Double top" pattern) increases the risks of a rollback to the current short-term downward trend.

                  Gold, daily chart

                  Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                  Comment


                  • Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 10, 2018

                    After some sideways consolidation between 1.7352 - 1.7448 more upside will be expected towards the next minor upside targets at 1.7924 on the way higher towards 1.8369 and 1.8423.

                    Support is now seen at 1.7404 and again at 1.7352. Ideally the later will be able to protect the downside for a clear break above 1.7480 confirming the next part of the uptrend towards 1.7924.

                    Only a break below support at 1.7301 will question the expected rally higher.

                    R3: 1.7667
                    R2: 1.7564
                    R1: 1.7480
                    Pivot: 1.7437
                    S1: 1.7404
                    S2: 1.7388
                    S3: 1.7352

                    Trading recommendation:
                    We are long EUR from 1.7226 and we will raise our stop to 1.7275.

                    Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                    Comment


                    • Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Aug 13, 2018

                      When the European market opens, there will be no Economic Data released, but the US will release the Economic Data such as Mortgage Delinquencies, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

                      TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
                      Breakout BUY Level: 1.1451.
                      Strong Resistance:1.1444.
                      Original Resistance: 1.1433.
                      Inner Sell Area: 1.1422.
                      Target Inner Area: 1.1395.
                      Inner Buy Area: 1.1368.
                      Original Support: 1.1357.
                      Strong Support: 1.1346.
                      Breakout SELL Level: 1.1339.


                      Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                      Comment


                      • Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 14, 2018

                        We are looking for red wave ii to complete in the 1.7196 - 1.7258 target-zone. Once this correction is complete a new impulsive rally to above 1.7487 is expected for a continuation higher to 1.7924 and 1.8369 as the next upside important upside targets. Short-term only a break above minor resistance at 1.7356 will indicate that a corrective low has been seen for red wave ii and red wave iii is taking over for a rally to above 1.7487.

                        R3: 1.7487
                        R2: 1.7417
                        R1: 1.7355
                        Pivot: 1.7322
                        S1: 1.7258
                        S2: 1.7226
                        S3: 1.7196

                        Trading recommendation:
                        We will re-buy EUR at 1.7245 or upon a break above 1.7356.

                        Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                        Comment


                        • Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 15, 2018

                          After a dip to 1.7220 all requirements for the correction in red wave i has been fulfilled. Therefore we are looking for a break above resistance at 1.7355 to confirm that red wave iii is developing for a break above the peak at 1.7484 as EUR/NZD moves higher towards 1.7924 and 1.8369.

                          Short-term support is seen at 1.7243, this support should ideally be able to protect the downside, for the expected rally higher. If, however, a break below 1.7243 is seen, a final dip closer to 1.7196 should be expected to complete red wave ii.

                          R3: 1.7487
                          R2: 1.7417
                          R1: 1.7355
                          Pivot: 1.7299
                          S1: 1.7270
                          S2: 1.7243
                          S3: 1.7220

                          Trading recommendation:
                          We are long EUR from 1.7245 with our stop placed at 1.7215.


                          Analysis are provided by InstaForex


                          Comment


                          • Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 16, 2018

                            A break above resistance at 1.7355 is still needed to confirm that red wave ii has completed and red wave iii to above 1.7484 is developing.

                            Short-term, we see support at 1.7262 and again at 1.7238. The later will ideally be able to protect the downside for the break above 1.7355 towards 1.7484 and above, with the next important targets seen at 1.7924 and 1.8369.

                            R3: 1.7484
                            R2: 1.7417
                            R1: 1.7355
                            Pivot: 1.7299
                            S1: 1.7270
                            S2: 1.7243
                            S3: 1.7220

                            Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 1.7245 with our stop placed at 1.7215.

                            Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                            Comment


                            • An alarming bell for pound buyers

                              Risk assets recovered slightly against the US dollar, but the market continues to be in a bearish trend in general.

                              The situation around Turkey shows that the Turkish lira and the deby growth of Turkish banks makes all investors refrain also from new investments in risky assets.

                              Today, one can observe the continuation of a slight strengthening of the Turkish lira against the US dollar, however this harm indicates its stabilization after falling to a record low. Most likely, investors harbor some optimism from the press conference of the Minister of Finance of Turkey, which is due today, and on which Berat Albayrak will present an approximate plan for overcoming the crisis.

                              The growth of the Turkish currency was approximately 2.5% in line with the closing level of yesterday, and just a week the lira rose against the dollar by 9.9%. Many associate such growth with the promise of Qatar to invest 15 billion dollars in the Turkish economy.

                              As mentioned above, the press conference of the Turkish finance minister can support the lira, but it can lead to a resumption of its decline if Berat Albayrak does not talk about key issues that worry many investors.

                              A number of experts are waiting for more resolute measures from the authorities of Turkey. It is expected that in the near future, the Central Bank of the country will raise rates to curb inflation and the government will prepare reforms aimed at a serious decline in the share of borrowed funds in the private sector. It is also expected that Turkey can apply for financial assistance to its partners, which will allow executing short-term debt obligations of banks.

                              The British pound only strengthened slightly against the US dollar, and then declined again after the release of UK retail sales data, which in July this year resumed their growth. This is a very bad "call" for traders who expect a corrective pair growth in the near future.

                              As noted in the report, the increase in sales was provided by food and beverages during the World Cup. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales in the UK increased by 0.7% compared with June, and higher than increased by 3.5% compared to July last year. Economists had expected sales growth of 0.2%.

                              As for the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair, demand for the pound will remain as long as the trade is above the 1.2660 support, but a return to the intermediate resistance 1.2735 is required to increase the upward correction, the breakthrough will open the direct course to the weekly highs of 1.2825 and 1.2890. While the breakthrough to 1.2660 will hit the pound towards the lows of 1.2570 and 1.2500.

                              * The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

                              Analysis are provided by InstaForex

                              Comment

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